Jobs numbers in October 2026?
70Kmedian
-50K150K
Median 70KMiddle half 18K – 105K
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Average Wall Street bonus in 2026
The odds
$283,750median
$175,000$375,000
Median $283,750Middle half $262,500 – $305,729
How the odds have moved
Median: $271,591 on Oct 13, $283,750 now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $200,000 | 98% | 97¢ | 98¢ | 2.1K | |
| Above $225,000 | 96% | 95¢ | 96¢ | 57.7K | |
| Above $250,000 | 90% | 89¢ | 90¢ | 34.6K | |
| Above $275,000 | 61% | 60¢ | 61¢ | 42.1K | |
| Above $300,000 | 31% | 30¢ | 31¢ | 79.2K | |
| Above $325,000 | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | 18.1K | |
| Above $350,000 | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | 1.1K |
Related markets
All inflation & jobs ›Jobs numbers in Nov 2026?
67Kmedian
-50K150K
Median 67KMiddle half 8K – 113K
Washington professional, scientific, and technical services employment at end of 2026
258,981median
230,000285,000
Median 258,981Middle half 254,205 – 262,708
Washington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
84,333median
79,00093,000
Median 84,333Middle half 83,635 – 84,871
Visitors to Florida in 2026
141.4median
134150
Median 141.4Middle half 140.2 – 143.1
October Unemployment Rate
4.19%median
3.75%4.65%
Median 4.19%Middle half 4.12% – 4.24%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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