Bank of Japan Decision in December?
66%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase66%
- No change31%
- 50+ bps increase2%▲ 1
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
Bank of Japan rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
The odds
66%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps66%▼ 1
- Maintain current rate28%
- Cut 25bps2%▲ 1
- Hike more than 25bps2%
- Cut more than 25bps1%
How the odds have moved
Hike 25bps: 65% on Oct 13, 66% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 66% | ▼ 1 | 67¢ | 69¢ | 2.4K |
| Maintain current rate | 28% | 26¢ | 32¢ | 65.00 | |
| Cut 25bps | 2% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 4¢ | 74.00 |
| Hike more than 25bps | 2% | 1¢ | 4¢ | 168 | |
| Cut more than 25bps | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | 74.00 |
The same question on Polymarket
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Bank of Japan rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)
94%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate94%
- Hike 25bps4%▼ 1
- Hike more than 25bps1%▲ 1
- Cut more than 25bps1%▼ 1
1 more
- Cut 25bps1%▼ 1
Fed Decision in October?
80%No change
- No change80%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase19%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.2%median
0.88%4.63%
Median 4.2%Middle half 4.05% – 4.32%
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▲ 1
- No change22%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%▼ 1
- June 2027 Meeting36%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting33%
- March 2027 Meeting17%▲ 1
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting5%
- December 2026 Meeting3%
- October 2026 Meeting1%
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