Bank of Japan rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
66%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps66%▲ 1
- Maintain current rate28%
- Cut 25bps2%▲ 1
- Hike more than 25bps2%
1 more
- Cut more than 25bps2%▲ 1
Install
Bank of Japan Decision in December?
The odds
66%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase66%
- No change31%
- 50+ bps increase2%
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How the odds have moved
25 bps increase: 66% on Oct 13, 66% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 66% | 65¢ | 66¢ | $6.4K | |
| No change | 31% | 30¢ | 31¢ | $3.7K | |
| 50+ bps increase | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $1.4K | |
| 25 bps decrease | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $1.1K | |
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $974 |
The same question on Kalshi
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Bank of Japan rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)
93%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate93%
- Hike 25bps5%
- Hike more than 25bps1%▲ 1
- Cut more than 25bps1%▼ 1
1 more
- Cut 25bps1%▼ 1
Fed Decision in October?
80%No change
- No change80%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase19%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.21%median
0.88%4.63%
Median 4.21%Middle half 4.06% – 4.34%
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▲ 1
- No change22%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%▼ 1
- June 2027 Meeting36%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting33%
- March 2027 Meeting18%▲ 1
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting5%
- December 2026 Meeting3%
- October 2026 Meeting1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Search index. Terms of use.