Bank of Japan Decision in January?
71%No Change
- No Change71%▲ 2
- 25 bps increase26%▲ 3
- 50+ bps increase2%
- 50+ bps decrease2%▼ 1
1 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
Install
Bank of Japan Decision in March?
The odds
48%No Change
- No Change48%
- 25 bps increase40%▲ 1
- 25 bps decrease3%▼ 1
- 50+ bps decrease3%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase3%
How the odds have moved
No Change: 45% on Oct 30, 48% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 48% | 47¢ | 48¢ | $2.4K | |
| 25 bps increase | 40% | ▲ 1 | 39¢ | 40¢ | $3.5K |
| 25 bps decrease | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $352 |
| 50+ bps decrease | 3% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | 6¢ | $377 |
| 50+ bps increase | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $352 |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Bank of Japan rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
86%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps86%▼ 3
- Maintain current rate11%▲ 1
- Cut more than 25bps1%
- Cut 25bps1%
1 more
- Hike more than 25bps1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)2%▲ 1
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Fed Decision in December?
66%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase66%▼ 12
- No change32%▲ 10
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%
- April 2027 Meeting50%▲ 1
- June 2027 Meeting30%
- March 2027 Meeting12%▼ 1
2 more
- January 2027 Meeting8%
- December 2026 Meeting1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
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