Bank of Canada Decision in October?
86%No Change
- No Change86%
- 25 bps increase14%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
The odds
85%Maintains rate
- Maintains rate85%▲ 1
- Hike 25bps13%▼ 2
- Cut >25bps1%
- Cut 25bps1%▼ 1
- Hike >25bps1%
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintains rate | 85% | ▲ 1 | 85¢ | 86¢ | 88.0K |
| Hike 25bps | 13% | ▼ 2 | 13¢ | 14¢ | 75.5K |
| Cut >25bps | 1% | 1¢ | 537 | ||
| Cut 25bps | 1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 20.3K | |
| Hike >25bps | 1% | 1¢ | 2.5K |
The same question on Polymarket
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Bank of Canada Decision in December?
51%No Change
- No Change51%▲ 3
- 25 bps increase45%▼ 2
- 50+ bps decrease1%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%▲ 1
1 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
Fed Decision in October?
80%No change
- No change80%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase19%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▲ 1
- No change22%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%▼ 1
- June 2027 Meeting36%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting33%
- March 2027 Meeting17%▲ 1
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting5%
- December 2026 Meeting3%
- October 2026 Meeting1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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