Bank of Canada Decision in January?
51%No Change
- No Change51%▼ 2
- 25 bps increase37%▲ 3
- 50+ bps increase4%
- 50+ bps decrease4%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease4%
Install
Bank of Canada Decision in March?
The odds
50%No Change
- No Change50%▲ 11
- 25 bps increase31%▲ 5
- 25 bps decrease14%▼ 1
- 50+ bps decrease5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
How the odds have moved
No Change: 42% on Oct 30, 50% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 50% | ▲ 11 | 48¢ | 51¢ | $6.3K |
| 25 bps increase | 31% | ▲ 5 | 29¢ | 33¢ | $987 |
| 25 bps decrease | 14% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 25¢ | $535 |
| 50+ bps decrease | 5% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $475 | |
| 50+ bps increase | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $759 |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?
63%Maintains rate
- Maintains rate63%▲ 4
- Hike 25bps36%▼ 3
- Cut >25bps<1%
- Cut 25bps<1%
1 more
- Hike >25bps<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)2%▲ 1
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Fed Decision in December?
66%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase66%▼ 12
- No change32%▲ 10
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%
- April 2027 Meeting50%▲ 1
- June 2027 Meeting30%
- March 2027 Meeting12%▼ 1
2 more
- January 2027 Meeting8%
- December 2026 Meeting1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
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