Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?
53%Maintains rate
- Maintains rate53%▼ 1
- Hike 25bps41%▼ 4
- Cut >25bps2%
- Cut 25bps2%▼ 1
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 1
Install
Bank of Canada Decision in December?
The odds
53%No Change
- No Change53%▲ 3
- 25 bps increase44%▼ 2
- 50+ bps decrease1%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%▲ 1
- 25 bps decrease1%
How the odds have moved
No Change: 51% on Oct 13, 53% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 53% | ▲ 3 | 54¢ | 55¢ | $17.3K |
| 25 bps increase | 44% | ▼ 2 | 45¢ | 46¢ | $17.7K |
| 50+ bps decrease | 1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 2¢ | $1.8K |
| 50+ bps increase | 1% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1.8K |
| 25 bps decrease | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1.9K |
The same question on Kalshi
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
85%Maintains rate
- Maintains rate85%▲ 3
- Hike 25bps13%
- Cut >25bps<1%
- Cut 25bps<1%▼ 1
1 more
- Hike >25bps<1%
Fed Decision in October?
80%No change
- No change80%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase19%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.21%median
0.88%4.63%
Median 4.21%Middle half 4.06% – 4.34%
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▲ 1
- No change22%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%▼ 1
- June 2027 Meeting36%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting33%
- March 2027 Meeting18%▲ 1
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting5%
- December 2026 Meeting3%
- October 2026 Meeting1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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