Predictions › Indexes S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 6? Polymarket Closes Fri 4:00 PM ET · $191 traded · prices read 14 min ago
$735 $795
Above today's price —
Not enough history yet.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Traders see as low as $702.73 .
Reaches $750 48% Reaches $760 30% Reaches $770 20% Reaches $780 14% Falls to $730 94% Falls to $720 79% Falls to $710 58% Falls to $700 47% Already reached: ↓ $760, ↓ $750, ↓ $740, ↑ $760, ↓ $760, ↑ $740
Traders see as low as $721.78 .
Reaches $745 15% Reaches $750 15% Reaches $755 15% Reaches $760 15% Falls to $730 92% Falls to $725 71% Falls to $720 39% Already reached: ↑ $765, ↑ $760, ↓ $755, ↓ $750, ↓ $745, ↓ $740
3,800 9,200
Median 7,602 Middle half 7,172 – 7,877 Above today's price 67%
Reaches 8,000 26% Reaches 8,200 14% Reaches 8,600 4% Reaches 9,000 4% Falls to 7,200 43% Falls to 7,000 43% Falls to 6,200 7% Falls to 6,000 5% Already reached: ↓ $7,400, ↑ $7,800, ↑ $7,600, ↑ $7,400, ↓ $6,600, ↓ $6,400
5,500 8,500
Median 7,307 Middle half 6,786 – 7,826 Above today's price 48%
Falls to 6,300 14% Falls to 6,200 6% Falls to 6,100 6% Falls to 6,000 6% Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues 10 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Settles on Pyth price feed
Trading closes Nov 6, 2026 4:00 PM ET
Traded $191 traded
Prices read 14 min ago
Followed since Nov 5, 2026
The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket .
Reading the odds Each price is the market's probability: a contract at 84¢ that pays $1 if the outcome happens means traders give it an 84% chance. The number shown is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
The strikes' odds give a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way, and the middle half spans the 25th to the 75th percentile.
Every prediction market
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Search index. Terms of use . How to use Finance