Predictions › Indexes S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 5? Polymarket Closed today 4:00 PM ET · $30.9K traded
Settled Below $735 A day before, traders had a median of $765.22
The last odds before it closed
Median: $765.22 on Nov 5, $736.75 now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $753.41 and as low as $710 .
Reaches $750 57% Reaches $760 37% Reaches $770 23% Reaches $780 13% Falls to $730 89% Falls to $720 66% Falls to $710 50% Falls to $700 42% Already reached: ↓ $760, ↓ $750, ↓ $740, ↑ $760, ↓ $760, ↑ $740
Traders see as low as $725.77 .
Reaches $745 30% Reaches $750 18% Reaches $755 18% Reaches $760 18% Falls to $730 63% Falls to $725 48% Falls to $720 19% Already reached: ↑ $765, ↑ $760, ↓ $755, ↓ $750, ↓ $745, ↓ $740
$735 $795
Above today's price —
7,325 8,075
Median 7,480 Middle half 7,360 – 7,583 Above today's price 79%
3,800 9,200
Median 7,589 Middle half 7,113 – 7,863 Above today's price 66%
5,500 8,500
Median 7,324 Middle half 6,808 – 7,832 Above today's price 48%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Settles on Pyth price feed
Trading closed Nov 5, 2026 4:00 PM ET
Traded $30.9K traded
Followed since Nov 4, 2026
The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket .
Reading the odds Each price is the market's probability: a contract at 84¢ that pays $1 if the outcome happens means traders give it an 84% chance. The number shown is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
The strikes' odds give a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way, and the middle half spans the 25th to the 75th percentile.
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Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Search index. Terms of use . How to use Finance