Kirbyville, TX 75956 Weather

Key Messages

- No precipitation is expected through late next week.

- Temperatures will fall into the 50s each night and warm into the low to mid 80s each afternoon.

- Wildfire risk will remain elevated through early next week in response to ongoing drought conditions and afternoon relative humidity dropping to 20-35% each day.

Discussion

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Surface high pressure centered over east Canada extends south across the eastern CONUS tonight, providing another night of calm winds and clear skies across the forecast area. Aloft, ridging extends from Mexico to the Great Lakes while troughing is over the Eastern Seaboard, with a northerly flow ongoing overhead between these two features. 00Z LCH sounding shows plenty of dry air throughout the column and a PWAT of 0.77" which is near the 25th percentile according to SPC climo. With the same general set up as the last few days, no surprise we will see temps again dip into the upper 40s to mid 50s as we approach sunrise.

Today through the weekend, the center of the aforementioned surface high will gradually meander south becoming centered over New England from Sat into Sun. This will keep a mainly easterly flow in place across the forecast area, with a slight uptick in wind speeds expected as the pressure gradient tightens a bit. Still, no significant moisture return is expected due to lack of any decent, long standing onshore flow. Aloft, the elongated ridge just to our west continues to slowly shift east today as a a robust upper low moves inland from the Pacific and gives it a push. Tomorrow the ridge will become centered overhead, where it will then linger into next week as the trailing low begins to weaken and dissipate over the Rockies. By next week the ridge begins to weaken and broaden out, allowing the flow overhead to transitions to a more zonal flow through the end of the forecast period.

With little synoptic changes on the horizon and the lack of any good moisture return, the ongoing dry and mild conditions continue. While this does mean rather cool nights and pleasant days, it also brings worsening drought concerns area-wide with a large portion of our LA parishes and a couple of our TX counties currently in a burn ban. In addition a D3 drought has been issued for a good portion of our LA parishes. Unfortunately our next chance of rain will come beyond of the scope of this forecast period, and with the majority of the region in such a rainfall deficit it will take much more than isolated showers to bring any relief.

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions forecast to prevail across all TAF sites through the daylight hours this today. Calm winds will become light and variable, often consisting of easterly components. Winds will become calm with occasional light and variable breeze tonight.

30

Marine

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Light mainly northeast to east winds and low seas will prevail again today. Tonight into tomorrow, winds shift to a more east to southeasterly fetch and begin to increase as surface high pressure builds down into the southeastern US and the pressure gradient overhead tightens. Winds remain breezy around 15-20 kts with higher gusts into early next week. This elongated period of elevated winds will allow seas to climb to 2-4 feet across the nearshore waters and from 4-9 feet from 20 to 60 miles offshore. Winds and seas will relax beginning Tuesday.