New Bern, NC 28562 Weather

What Has Changed

The Wind Advisory has been cancelled for the OBX

Various marine headlines have been adjusted based on the latest trends in observations.

The Coastal Flood Advisory for Downeast Carteret County has been cancelled.

Key Messages

1) A slow moving nor'easter continues deepen well offshore, impacting the coastal areas.

2) Dry with cooler than avg conditions continue through the week.

Marine: Gale Warnings continue in effect. Prolonged period of strong winds and high seas as nor'easter lingers offshore through at least mid week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1...Vertically stacked low pressure will meander off the NC and Mid-Atlantic coast through mid week bringing prolonged strong north to northeasterly winds across ENC. Guidance continues to show the low wobbling a bit off the coast while deepening tonight as it slowly lifts northward off the Mid-Atlantic coast, as the system remains cut-off from the mean flow aloft. Winds may increase again tonight, with another surge potentially on Wednesday, so will make very little change to winds at this time. It is not until Thursday that the low will begin to accelerate away from the East Coast as a northern stream shortwave digs into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Tight pressure gradients between the offshore low and high pressure across the Eastern CONUS will bring moderate north to northeast winds across the region with the strongest winds across the Outer Banks where gusts 35-40 mph will be possible. The one change that was made this evening was to cancel the Wind Advisory for the OBX. Winds haven't been as strong this evening, and guidance suggests winds should stay just below Wind Advisory criteria through Wednesday.

The strong winds offshore continue to bring large surf along the coast as well as coastal flooding impacts along vulnerable locations of the coast, especially along Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands where dune structure is fragile. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have recently reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe, and ferry service remains suspended in certain locations. Additionally, webcams this evening show at least one section of the Pea Island dune structure has been washed away.

Each subsequent high tide cycle will continue to threaten the dunes further, and the threat of additional impacts to Hwy 12 remain. Minor soundside flooding is also a concern along southern portions of the Pamlico Sound, including Frisco and Ocracoke. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands and a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Northern Outer Banks. Additionally, a high surf advisory continues for Cape Lookout and points north through the OBX. For Downeast Carteret County, the Coastal Flood Advisory has been cancelled as water levels have receded, and are not anticipated to rise again.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Pleasantly cooler air mass that has advected in will remain with us through the next several days with temps a bit below climo. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the 60-70 degree range. Overnight lows will range from the 40s inland to the 50s coast.

Aviation

Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

A Nor'easter is clearly evident on satellite imagery this evening, and is located roughly 380 miles ENE of Cape Hatteras. The pressure gradient has finally relaxed some which has allowed winds to decrease at all TAF sites. While another round of gusty winds is expected on Wednesday, the overall trend is for winds to continue to step down. With very dry air in place west of the low, skies are expected to remain VFR over the next 24 hours.

Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): VFR and breezy conditions are expected to continue through the next several days as the offshore low remains well offshore and high pressure to the north. Inland winds would be highest during the daytime with better mixing and gusts up to around 20 kt each day.