Morehead City, NC Weather

What Has Changed

Next batch of Coastal Flood Headlines have gone out. Aviation discussion updated.

Key Messages

1) Breezy NE winds and high astronomical tides will bring the potential for additional coastal impacts Friday into into early next week.

2) Dry with cooler than avg conditions continue through the weekend.

Marine: Strong north to northeast winds and large seas will continue to bring hazardous boating conditions into next week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic and low pressure well off the SE coast will result in a period of breezy to strong NE winds returning tonight through early next week with strongest winds along the coast, especially south of Cape Hatteras where gradients will be tightest. This, combined with upcoming King Tide cycle could lead to additional minor coastal impacts (coastal flooding and rough surf).

For Hatteras Island, long period swells have subsided slightly to around 6-8 ft, however with increasing NE winds, seas are expected to build up to 7-9 ft tonight and continue through the weekend. This will continue to bring the threat of ocean overwash to vulnerable areas where the dune structure has been compromised, especially around the times of high tide. For ocean-side: tonight's high tide is around 6 pm this evening and between 6 and 7 AM Saturday. Soundside high tides range from 2 to 3 hours behind the oceanside tides. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe.

The region is also entering a King Tide cycle this weekend that will continue through next week. Expect higher than normal tide cycles with minor "sunny day" coastal flooding across much of the tidal regions of ENC around times of high tide. The areas most susceptible to street flooding will be low lying areas along the Neuse and Bay rivers as well as Downeast Carteret County to North Topsail Beach as persistent moderate NE winds will contribute to additional waters rises. The morning high tide will be the highest of the daily tides this weekend and next week with the King Tide peaking TUE and WED.

Because of all this and the minor localized flooding that was already seen with this morning's high tide, have extended the pre- existing Coastal Flood Advisory for Hatteras Island through the remainder of the weekend. Have also issued new coastal flood advisories starting with tomorrow morning's high tide for Northern Outer Banks, Ocracoke, the entire Crystal Coast, and the areas adjacent to Neuse and Bay Rivers (Southern Craven and Pamlico counties) lasting through Monday morning's high tide. As stated above, the King Tide will peak TUE and WED, so these advisories will likely need to be extended from their current end times, but didn't want to to go out that far just yet to see if just an extension will suffice or if a Coastal Flood Warning would be warranted for the MON-WED timeframe.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Pleasantly cooler air mass will remain with us through the next several days with temps continuing near to slightly below climo. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s range.

Good radiational cooling conditions last night led to lows in the low to mid 30s across the bulk of the FA. Slightly more cloud coverage tonight and NE winds will bring light mixing during the overnight hours tonight through the weekend, keeping temps from dropping as much as the previous two nights. Generally expect overnight lows from the mid 40s inland to the 50s to around 60 along the coast. These temps and winds should preclude any frost development.

Aviation

Primarily VFR conditions forecast across all terminals through the period. Though there is at least a slight chance of some spotty MVFR CIGs, most likely overnight and along the coast closer to the MRH terminal. Steady NE winds tonight at 5-10 kts inland and 10-20 kts along the immediate coast and OBX will keep the fog threat low. Gradient tightens further Sat morning with 10-15 kt NE'rly winds and gusts up around 20 kts at times across ENC through the day. Have seen STCU continue to advect into the region this evening. Have shown the lower cloudbases this evening and into SAT morning, but have left prevailing lines at FEW or SCT. Have included a tempo group for MRH due to MVFR CIGs with them having the greatest chance, but still not high enough confidence to include a prevailing line here.

Outlook (Saturday night through Wednesday): Generally, expect VFR conditions to continue through the next several days with strong high pressure building in from the north. However, coastal sections could see MVFR STCU at times. Breezy NE winds are expected to continue into early next week.