Bank of Japan rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)
93%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate93%
- Hike 25bps5%
- Hike more than 25bps1%▲ 1
- Cut more than 25bps1%▼ 1
1 more
- Cut 25bps1%▼ 1
Install
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
The odds
95%No change
- No change95%
- 25 bps increase4%
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
How the odds have moved
No change: 95% on Oct 13, 95% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 95% | 94¢ | 96¢ | $64.0K | |
| 25 bps increase | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | $62.2K | |
| 50+ bps increase | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $51.5K | |
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | $7.2K | ||
| 25 bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | $12.3K |
The same question on Kalshi
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Bank of Japan Decision in December?
66%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase66%
- No change31%
- 50+ bps increase2%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed Decision in October?
80%No change
- No change80%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase19%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.21%median
0.88%4.63%
Median 4.21%Middle half 4.06% – 4.34%
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▲ 1
- No change22%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%▼ 1
- June 2027 Meeting36%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting33%
- March 2027 Meeting18%▲ 1
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting5%
- December 2026 Meeting3%
- October 2026 Meeting1%
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