Fed Decision in October?

Polymarket Closes Oct 28 · $33.6M traded · prices read 3 min ago

The odds

80%No change
  • No change80%▼ 3
  • 25 bps increase19%▲ 3
  • 25 bps decrease1%
  • 50+ bps increase<1%
  • 50+ bps decrease<1%

How the odds have moved

No change: 80% on Oct 13, 80% now.

Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Traded
No change 80% ▼ 3 80¢ 81¢ $8.9M
25 bps increase 19% ▲ 3 19¢ 20¢ $7.7M
25 bps decrease 1% 1¢ 1¢ $6.6M
50+ bps increase <1% 0¢ 0¢ $4.5M
50+ bps decrease <1% 0¢ 0¢ $6.0M

The same question on Kalshi

Fed decision in Oct 2026?

81%Fed maintains rate
  • Fed maintains rate81%▼ 3
  • Hike 25bps17%▲ 2
  • Cut >25bps1%
  • Cut 25bps1%
1 more
  • Hike >25bps1%

Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

More on this question

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

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