Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▲ 1
- No change22%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
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Fed decision in Dec 2026?
The odds
72%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps72%▲ 2
- Fed maintains rate24%▼ 1
- Hike >25bps2%
- Cut 25bps1%
- Cut >25bps<1%
How the odds have moved
Hike 25bps: 72% on Oct 13, 72% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 72% | ▲ 2 | 73¢ | 75¢ | 217.5K |
| Fed maintains rate | 24% | ▼ 1 | 23¢ | 26¢ | 257.4K |
| Hike >25bps | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | 224.8K | |
| Cut 25bps | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | 180.5K | |
| Cut >25bps | <1% | 1¢ | 82.7K |
The same question on Polymarket
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Fed Decision in October?
80%No change
- No change80%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase19%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed decision in Jan 2027?
62%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate62%▼ 3
- Hike 25bps32%▲ 2
- Cut 25bps5%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps1%
1 more
- Cut >25bps<1%
Fed decision in Mar 2027?
45%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps45%▼ 5
- Fed maintains rate43%▲ 2
- Cut >25bps5%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps4%
1 more
- Cut 25bps3%▲ 1
Fed decision in Apr 2027?
66%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate66%▼ 6
- Hike 25bps19%▲ 3
- Cut 25bps10%
- Cut >25bps4%
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 1
Fed decision in Jun 2027?
57%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate57%▲ 3
- Hike 25bps28%
- Cut >25bps6%
- Cut 25bps6%
1 more
- Hike >25bps3%▼ 1
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
78%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate78%▼ 2
- Hike 25bps10%▲ 3
- Cut 25bps7%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps6%▼ 2
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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