Fed Decision in October?
80%No change
- No change80%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase19%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
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Fed decision in Oct 2026?
The odds
81%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate81%▼ 3
- Hike 25bps17%▲ 2
- Cut >25bps1%
- Cut 25bps1%
- Hike >25bps1%
How the odds have moved
Fed maintains rate: 81% on Oct 13, 81% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | 81% | ▼ 3 | 81¢ | 82¢ | 4.1M |
| Hike 25bps | 17% | ▲ 2 | 17¢ | 18¢ | 2.8M |
| Cut >25bps | 1% | 1¢ | 232.9K | ||
| Cut 25bps | 1% | 1¢ | 1.0M | ||
| Hike >25bps | 1% | 1¢ | 918.3K |
The same question on Polymarket
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Fed decision in Dec 2026?
72%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps72%▲ 1
- Fed maintains rate24%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps2%
- Cut 25bps1%
1 more
- Cut >25bps<1%
Fed decision in Jan 2027?
62%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate62%▼ 3
- Hike 25bps32%▲ 2
- Cut 25bps5%▲ 2
- Hike >25bps1%
1 more
- Cut >25bps<1%
Fed decision in Mar 2027?
45%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate45%▲ 2
- Hike 25bps44%▼ 8
- Cut >25bps5%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps4%
1 more
- Cut 25bps3%
Fed decision in Apr 2027?
66%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate66%▼ 6
- Hike 25bps19%▲ 3
- Cut 25bps10%
- Cut >25bps4%
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 1
Fed decision in Jun 2027?
57%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate57%▲ 3
- Hike 25bps28%
- Cut >25bps6%
- Cut 25bps6%
1 more
- Hike >25bps3%▼ 1
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
78%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate78%▼ 2
- Hike 25bps10%▲ 3
- Cut 25bps7%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps6%▼ 2
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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