Bank of England Decision in March?
59%No Change
- No Change59%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase32%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease5%
- 50+ bps increase4%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease3%
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Bank of England Decision in February?
The odds
78%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase78%▲ 10
- No Change16%▼ 1
- 25 bps decrease3%▼ 2
- 50+ bps decrease2%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
How the odds have moved
25 bps increase: 54% on Oct 30, 78% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 78% | ▲ 10 | 78¢ | 80¢ | $12.4K |
| No Change | 16% | ▼ 1 | 15¢ | 18¢ | $2.5K |
| 25 bps decrease | 3% | ▼ 2 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $560 |
| 50+ bps decrease | 2% | 0¢ | 3¢ | $1.0K | |
| 50+ bps increase | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $463 |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Bank of England decision in December?
64%No change
- No change64%▼ 14
- 25 bps increase34%▲ 14
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 25 bps decrease1%▼ 1
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed Decision in December?
66%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase66%▼ 12
- No change32%▲ 10
- 25 bps decrease1%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▼ 1
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
51%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting51%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting50%
- June 2027 Meeting30%
- March 2027 Meeting12%▼ 1
2 more
- January 2027 Meeting8%
- December 2026 Meeting2%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
67%chance▼ 11
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