Bank of England rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
61%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate61%▼ 13
- Hike 1-25bps36%▲ 13
- Hike more than 25bps2%
- Cut 1-25bps2%▲ 1
1 more
- Cut more than 25bps1%▼ 1
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Bank of England decision in December?
The odds
64%No change
- No change64%▼ 14
- 25 bps increase34%▲ 14
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 25 bps decrease1%▼ 1
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How the odds have moved
No change: 26% on Oct 15, 64% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 64% | ▼ 14 | 63¢ | 66¢ | $28.0K |
| 25 bps increase | 34% | ▲ 14 | 33¢ | 35¢ | $11.5K |
| 50+ bps increase | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $4.8K | |
| 25 bps decrease | 1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | 1¢ | $3.7K |
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $3.4K |
The same question on Kalshi
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Bank of England Decision in February?
78%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase78%▲ 21
- No Change16%
- 25 bps decrease4%▼ 1
- 50+ bps decrease2%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
Bank of England Decision in March?
59%No Change
- No Change59%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase32%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease5%
- 50+ bps increase4%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease3%
Fed Decision in December?
66%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase66%▼ 12
- No change32%▲ 10
- 25 bps decrease1%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▼ 1
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
51%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting51%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting50%
- June 2027 Meeting30%
- March 2027 Meeting12%▼ 1
2 more
- January 2027 Meeting8%
- December 2026 Meeting2%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
66%chance▼ 12
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