US recession by end of 2026?
8%chance▲ 1
Install
Bank of Russia decision in December?
The odds
47%No change
- No change47%▲ 5
- 25 bps decrease40%▼ 4
- 50+ bps decrease5%▼ 2
- 50+ bps increase4%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase4%▼ 2
How the odds have moved
No change: 45% on Oct 13, 47% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 47% | ▲ 5 | 47¢ | 50¢ | $2.8K |
| 25 bps decrease | 40% | ▼ 4 | 40¢ | 42¢ | $5.0K |
| 50+ bps decrease | 5% | ▼ 2 | 1¢ | 10¢ | $365 |
| 50+ bps increase | 4% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 6¢ | $215 |
| 25 bps increase | 4% | ▼ 2 | 3¢ | 5¢ | $191 |
Related markets
All growth & recession ›South Dakota corn yield in 2026
152.1median
120185
Median 152.1Middle half 147.2 – 157.2
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.25%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.25%Middle half 2.67% – 3.94%
Recession in 2027?
20%chance▲ 1
GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
0%3%
Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.08%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.08%Middle half 0.89% – 3.12%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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