US recession by end of 2027?
34%chance▲ 1
Install
Recession in 2027?
The odds
20%chance▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 19% on Oct 13, 20% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
The same question on Polymarket
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All growth & recession ›Recession this year? (In 2026)
5%chance
South Dakota corn yield in 2026
152.1median
120185
Median 152.1Middle half 147.1 – 157.2
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.24%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.24%Middle half 2.66% – 3.94%
GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
0%3%
Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.07%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.07%Middle half 0.86% – 3.14%
US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?
2.21%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.21%Middle half 1.11% – 3.09%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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