State of the economy at the end of 2026
66%Overheating
- Overheating66%
- Soft landing31%▲ 1
- Stagflation2%
- Slack / disinflation1%
Install
US recession by end of 2026?
The odds
8%chance▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 8% on Oct 13, 8% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
The same question on Kalshi
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Kalshi
When will the next US recession start?
6%Q1 2026
- Q1 20266%
- Q4 20254%
- Q2 20252%
- Q4 20242%
2 more
- Q3 20251%
- Q1 2025<1%
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Kalshi
Recession this year? (In 2026)
4%chance▼ 1
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All growth & recession ›US recession by end of 2027?
34%chance▲ 1
South Dakota corn yield in 2026
152.1median
120185
Median 152.1Middle half 147.0 – 157.2
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.24%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.24%Middle half 2.67% – 3.94%
GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
0%3%
Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.08%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.08%Middle half 0.89% – 3.12%
US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?
2.21%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.21%Middle half 1.14% – 3.08%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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