US recession by end of 2026?
8%chance▲ 1
Install
State of the economy at the end of 2026
The odds
67%Overheating
- Overheating67%
- Soft landing30%
- Stagflation2%
- Slack / disinflation1%
How the odds have moved
Overheating: 66% on Oct 13, 67% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overheating | 67% | 66¢ | 70¢ | 51.3K | |
| Soft landing | 30% | 29¢ | 33¢ | 29.5K | |
| Stagflation | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | 29.5K | |
| Slack / disinflation | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | 5.1K |
The same question on Polymarket
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All growth & recession ›US recession by end of 2027?
34%chance▲ 1
South Dakota corn yield in 2026
152.1median
120185
Median 152.1Middle half 147.0 – 157.2
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.24%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.24%Middle half 2.66% – 3.94%
GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
0%3%
Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.08%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.08%Middle half 0.89% – 3.12%
US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?
2.21%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.21%Middle half 1.14% – 3.08%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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