Freddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026?
4%chance
Install
30-year mortgage rate at the end of 2026
The odds
7.58%median
5.75%9.25%
Median 7.58%Middle half 7.2% – 7.7%
How the odds have moved
Median: 7.17% on Oct 3, 7.58% now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 6.00% | 98% | 96¢ | 99¢ | ||
| Above 6.25% | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | ||
| Above 6.50% | 97% | 94¢ | 99¢ | ||
| Above 7.50% | 66% | 10¢ | 69¢ | 158 | |
| Above 7.75% | 15% | 3¢ | 15¢ | 4.00 | |
| Above 8.00% | 6% | 2¢ | 9¢ | 200 | |
| Above 8.25% | 4% | 7¢ | |||
| Above 8.50% | 3% | 6¢ | |||
| Above 8.75% | 2% | 4¢ | |||
| Above 9.00% | 2% | 4¢ |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
55%↓ 7.00%
Traders see as low as 6.96%.
- Reaches 7.5%42%
- Reaches 7.75%19%
- Reaches 8%16%
- Falls to 7%55%
- Falls to 6.75%26%
- Falls to 6.5%20%
- Falls to 6.25%18%
Already reached: ↑ 7.25%, ↑ 7.00%, ↑ 6.75%, ↑ 6.50%, ↑ 6.30%, ↑ 6.20%
30-year mortgage rate at the end of 2027
53%Above 6.25%
5.75%6.75%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)2%▲ 1
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Fed Decision in December?
66%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase66%▼ 12
- No change32%▲ 10
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%
- April 2027 Meeting50%▲ 1
- June 2027 Meeting30%
- March 2027 Meeting13%
2 more
- January 2027 Meeting8%
- December 2026 Meeting1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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