Freddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026?
4%chance
Install
Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
The odds
72%↑ 7.50%
- Reaches 7.5%72%
- Falls to 6.5%17%
- Falls to 6.25%10%
- Falls to 6%5%
- Falls to 5.9%3%
- Falls to 5.7%2%
- Falls to 5.5%2%
Already reached: ↑ 7.25%, ↑ 7.00%, ↑ 6.75%, ↑ 6.50%, ↑ 6.30%, ↑ 6.20%
How the odds have moved
Falls to 6%: 5% on Oct 13, 5% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ ↑ 6.20% | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | ||
| ✓ ↑ 6.30% | >99% | ▼ 2 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $29.4K |
| ✓ ↑ 6.50% | >99% | ▲ 13 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $6.9K |
| ✓ ↑ 6.75% | >99% | ▲ 2 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $5.5K |
| ✓ ↑ 7.00% | >99% | ▲ 10 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $8.0K |
| ✓ ↑ 7.25% | >99% | ▲ 11 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $3.3K |
| ↑ 7.50% | 72% | 70¢ | 74¢ | $1.2K | |
| ↓ 5.50% | 2% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $2.9K | |
| ↓ 5.70% | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $12.2K | |
| ↓ 5.90% | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $11.6K | |
| ↓ 6.00% | 5% | ▼ 2 | 4¢ | 5¢ | $4.0K |
| ✓ ↓ 6.00% | >99% | ▲ 27 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $673 |
| ↓ 6.25% | 10% | ▼ 1 | 8¢ | 12¢ | $1.6K |
| ↓ 6.50% | 17% | 15¢ | 18¢ | $10.8K |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›30-year mortgage rate at the end of 2027
63%Above 6.50%
5.75%6.75%
Fed Decision in October?
80%No change
- No change80%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase19%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.21%median
0.88%4.63%
Median 4.21%Middle half 4.06% – 4.34%
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▲ 1
- No change22%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
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