Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?

Kalshi Closes Nov 6 · 15.8K contracts · prices read 64 min ago

The odds

4.2%median
3.25%5.55%
Median 4.2%Middle half 4.09% – 4.34%

How the odds have moved

Median: 4.2% on Oct 13, 4.2% now.

The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Contracts
Exactly 3.3% 2% ▼ 1 5¢ 500
Exactly 3.4% 2% 5¢
Exactly 3.5% 2% 5¢
Exactly 3.6% 2% 5¢
Exactly 3.7% 2% 5¢
Exactly 3.8% 2% 5¢ 133
Exactly 3.9% 2% 1¢ 4¢ 800
Exactly 4.0% 6% 7¢ 10¢ 1.6K
Exactly 4.1% 18% ▼ 1 24¢ 28¢ 1.9K
Exactly 4.2% 26% ▲ 1 34¢ 41¢ 2.1K
Exactly 4.3% 14% ▼ 2 18¢ 24¢ 1.6K
Exactly 4.4% 4% ▲ 2 4¢ 9¢ 620
Exactly 4.5% 2% 1¢ 4¢ 837
Exactly 4.6% 2% 1¢ 6¢ 865
Exactly 4.7% 1% 4¢ 1.6K
Exactly 4.8% 2% 5¢ 1.0K
Exactly 4.9% 2% 5¢ 722
Exactly 5.0% 2% 5¢ 600
Exactly 5.1% 2% 5¢ 244
Exactly 5.2% 2% 5¢ 247
Exactly 5.3% 2% 5¢ 400
Exactly 5.4% 2% 5¢
Exactly 5.5% 2% 5¢

The same question on Polymarket

Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

More on this question

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Search index. Terms of use.