Lake Monticello, VA Weather

What Has Changed

- A Frost Advisory has been issued for the Piedmont counties west, northwest and north of the Richmond metro.

- The Small Craft Advisory for the southern coastal waters has been extended through Monday.

Key Messages

1) Continued dry with seasonable temperatures through midweek, trending to above normal late in the week.

Discussion

As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Continued dry with seasonable temperatures through midweek, trending to above normal late in the week.

GOES water vapor channels continue to depict a highly amplified pattern with an upper ridge extending from the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes, with a trough lingering off the East Coast. At the surface, 1035mb high pressure is centered from SE PA into the northern Delmarva this afternoon. Mostly sunny with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, with dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 40s. The wind remains NE and light for much of the area. However, it is still gusting to 20-25 mph along the coasts of SE VA and NE NC.

The surface high continues to settle southward tonight with the axis oriented in vicinity of the VA Piedmont. Given this, there is a greater potential for a more widespread frost spreading east from the Piedmont to interior SE VA as better decoupling is expected. It is a little concerning that dewpoints have lingered in the 40s today. However, temperatures away from the coast have been radiating well in this pattern, and have continued the same thinking as the previous shift to go a few degrees (or several degrees in some areas) colder than NBM. This results in mid 30s forecast for the Piedmont (locally lower 30s possible) and and mid-upper 30s for interior SE VA and the lower MD Eastern Shore. A Frost Advisory has been issued for the NW Piedmont counties where confidence is highest for 2m temperatures falling to near freezing.

After the cold start, turning warmer Monday and Tuesday ahead of the next (dry) front, then slightly cooler Wednesday and staying dry. Temperatures warm above average late in the week with high temperatures well into the 70s for most, along with no rain chances as moisture is expected to stay offshore off the SE US coast. The 25/12z ECMWF ensemble/GEFS chance for measurable rain (.01"+) of rain through the end of the month is basically zero aside from some low probs showing up in southeastern portions of the area later in the week into the following weekend from the EC ens. (GEFS has none), but when switching the threshold to 0.1"+ the EC ens. basically has zero probs. It should be noted that despite the ongoing drought/precipitation deficit across much of the area, none of our long-term climate sites will rank among the 10 driest Octobers on record (as October has several occurrences with monthly rainfall amounts of less than 0.50").

Aviation

As of 140 PM EDT Sunday...

1035mb high pressure was centered over SE PA, NE MD, and DE as of 18z. VFR under a mostly sunny sky with FEW CU. The wind was NE 6-12kt, and gusting to ~20kt at ORF and ECG. VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the 25/18z TAF period under a clear/sunny sky. High pressure settles S into the region tonight and Monday. The wind will become calm to very light for most sites, and locally remain NE/NNE 5-10kt at ORF and ECG. Some patchy shallow ground fog is possible where the wind becomes calm. However, confidence is currently not high enough to include at any terminals. The wind remains light Monday, generally WNW at RIC and SBY, and N/NNE at PHF, ORF, and ECG.

Outlook: Elevated N to NE winds return Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise, dry and VFR conditions continue through the week.