Chincoteague, VA Weather

What Has Changed

- Coastal Flood Advisories have been extended through Saturday afternoon for portions of the area.

Key Messages

1) Continued dry with seasonable temperatures through the middle of next week.

2) Elevated tidal anomalies continue through Saturday with nuisance to minor tidal flooding forecast.

Discussion

As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Continued dry with seasonable temperatures through the middle of next week.

Surface analysis shows broad 1030+mb high pressure centered near northern NY early this afternoon. Aloft, the flow is highly amplified between strong ridging over the central CONUS and low heights over the Canadian Maritimes. A weakening closed upper low is noted off the Carolina coast. A subtle surface trough has formed over the eastern half of the area as high pressure to the north spreads eastward. Low level winds have become onshore/NE, allowing moisture to increase below a subsidence inversion aloft. Scattered to broken stratocumulus clouds have blossomed over the area this afternoon with the relative thickest clouds mostly confined to the eastern half of the area.

The high continues to build south and into the local area later tonight through the weekend, with a developing sfc trough of low pressure off the SE US coast. The compressed pressure gradient will tend to keep the airmass mixed with milder temperatures for at least the SE 1/2 of the CWA tonight but northern and NW sections should see lows back into the 30s, potentially leading to patchy frost by sunrise Saturday. Held off on any Frost Advisories after coordination with neighboring offices, mainly due to the potential for at least light winds to continue overnight. The typically cooler sheltered spots in the piedmont will have the best chance to see some patchy frost early Saturday morning.

High pressure will dominate the local weather pattern for the remainder of the weekend and likely well into next week. Not much change in the forecast with seasonal temperatures and near zero chance for rainfall returning to the region. At this time, both Saturday night/Sunday AM and Sunday night/Monday AM have the potential for at least patchy frost over much of the interior, with the greatest potential in the piedmont. Have continued to undercut NBM and some of the statistical guidance values by several degrees except at the immediate coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Elevated tidal anomalies continue through Saturday with nuisance to minor tidal flooding forecast.

Aviation

As of 720 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 00z/24 TAF period as high pressure remains to the NE. SCT-BKN high clouds ~5,000 ft remain across the areas, with clear skies expected to return for most of the area overnight. Otherwise, winds will remain out of the NE tonight ~10 kt at ORF/ECG and ~5 kt at RIC/SBY/PHF. Cloud cover will return again by Saturday afternoon, but should remain VFR.

Outlook: VFR prevails Sunday-early next week. Forecast winds are out of the E-NE through this period, with a typical diurnal max/min expected.