Ocean City, MD Weather

What Has Changed

- Lowered min temps overnight across inland areas, added patchy frost wording to the far NW.

- Winds lowered some through midweek. Wind Advisories cancelled for VA Beach and OBX Currituck.

- Water levels and tidal flooding impacts continue to trend lower this week, however, minor to locally moderate flooding is still expected. Coastal Flood Watches have been replaced with Coastal Flood Advisories.

- The Gale Warning for the lower James River and Chesapeake Bay between Smith Point and New Point Comfort (that was in effect from this evening into tomorrow) has been replaced with a Small Craft Advisory.

Key Messages

1) Breezy and mostly sunny Fall-like week for most. Breezy NNE winds continue through the middle of the week, with mainly dry conditions expected. Cool nights prevail well inland with lighter winds.

2) Water levels gradually rise this week. Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect today into Wednesday night across the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and the Atlantic coast.

Discussion

As of 930 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Breezy and mostly sunny Fall-like week for most. Breezy NNE winds continue through the middle of the week, with mainly dry conditions expected. Cool nights prevail well inland with lighter winds.

IR and nighttime physics satellite imagery showing that the strato-cu across the far SE has mostly dissipated this evening, with a mainly clear sky area-wide. Sprawling low pressure remains several hundred miles offshore of the NC OBX. Outside of the wind along the coast, the weather should be remarkably uneventful this week as high pressure keeps most of us sunny and temperatures around seasonable levels. Dry conditions are also expected to prevail with low and comfortable humidity values. Should note there is a low (<20%) chance of a rogue shower along the immediate VA and NC coast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the low potentially retrogrades westward a bit, but this would be dependent on the exact position of the low.

Regarding temperature specifics, have lowered tonight's (early AM Tuesday) min temps a few degrees based on current conditions, going close to the MAV values along and W of I-95. It will not be as favorable as last night when ~1035mb sfc high pressure was centered over the piedmont, but expect to see lows into the upper 30s for most of the northern piedmont, with pockets of mid 30s possible. Added patchy frost wording to Louisa/Fluvanna, but do not anticipate this being widespread so did not issue a Frost Advisory. Elsewhere, lows will mostly range in the low-mid 40s, with 50s near the coast where mixing continues with elevatedN-NE winds.

Highs Tuesday through Thursday should be a bit warmer than today, generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A push of cold advection cools Friday off a bit, but not excessively so. The current temperature forecast ranges from around 60 F on the Eastern Shore to the low to mid 60s for mainland VA and NC. The dry and seasonable wx should continue into the upcoming weekend, with the leftovers of the nor'easter/coastal system well northeast of the area and across the extreme eastern Canadian Maritimes by this time. Overnight lows remain on the chilly side and should average in the 40s inland and 50s near the coast. It could dip into the upper 30s in the rural locations well inland, with the best chances for this Wednesday night and Friday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Water levels gradually rise this week. Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect today into Wednesday night across the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and the Atlantic coast.

Aviation

As of 120 AM EDT Tuesday...

Clouds associated with a coastal low have moved offshore, allowing for clear skies across all terminals. The latest model guidance has the low far enough offshore to keep clear skies at all terminals through the 6z taf period. However, cannot completely rule out a few clouds approaching the coastline on Tue. Winds were generally light inland (<8 kt) but remain elevated along the coast. ORF continues to gust to 20-25+ kt whereas ECG hasn't seen many gusts but has kept sustained winds around 10-12 kt. N winds are expected to increase again between 12-14Z, with gusts to 25-30 kt through the day Tue at ORF/ECG and up to 20-25 kt elsewhere.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the week. Continued breezy N winds are expected through the rest of the week.