Socorro Mission Number 1 Colonia, TX Weather

Key Messages

Updated at 530 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- A brief stretch of drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday before rain chances return Thursday through the weekend. A few storms will be capable of heavy rain and localized flooding.

- Typical temperatures for the end of October with lowland highs in the mid to upper 70s, becoming slightly cooler this weekend.

Discussion

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Current satellite imagery shows a moisture boundary progressing NW over EP with building clouds south of the metro area. CAMs, particularly the HREF, are showing isolated showers developing along this boundary overnight (1-3am), pushing northeastward through the lower valley/Horizon City area. Rain amounts should be light (0.1-0.25"), but high-end rainfall of 1" is possible based on the HREF. The REFS is much more bearish on rain chances (~10%) and amounts in east El Paso overnight.

Clearing is forecast by sunrise with high low-level humidity and light winds resulting in patchy fog east of the RGV. For Tue, zonal flow takes over, pushing much of the moisture eastward and ending storm chances other than along the Hudspeth/Culberson line. Winds become modestly breezy from the SW in the afternoon for northern areas. Similar wx is forecast on Wed as the flow aloft turns SW, starting to pull moisture northward out of Mexico.

Moisture advection intensifies through Thu as a shortwave trough approaches and provides forcing for ascent. This disturbance will result in scattered to widespread showers and embedded t-storms Thu afternoon and night, especially E of the RGV. With modest instability and weak shear, severe storms are not anticipated from this system. However, there is a low risk of flash flooding due to repeated showers/storms. 90th %-ile NBM shows 1.5-2.5" E of US 54 through Thu night. The flood threat and rain chances will lower as you head west. A weaker shortwave moves in from the SW for Fri, bringing better rain chances to western areas. For Fri, the flood threat favors the Gila Region, but lower overall compared to Thu. Zonal flow and drier air returns on Sat. Seasonal temps, higher clouds, and generally light winds are forecast for Halloween.

The next trough arrives for Sun, bringing more clouds and rain chances Sun/Mon. NM will be favored for rain early next week with drier conditions in far west TX. Western areas and the high terrain are most likely to see flash flooding, but confidence is low. Breezy winds should accompany the trough/frontal passage on Sun. Temps will be near normal through midweek, then cooling a bit early next week behind the Pacific front.

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

VMC through forecast period with skies generally FEW-SCT070 today. Light surface winds 180-220 at 4 to 8 knots this afternoon. Isolated TS east of KELP across SE NM and W TX, but no direct impacts to terminals tonight. Mostly clear skies tonight with calm winds.

Fire Weather

Issued at 530 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Dry conditions today as moisture shifts east. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph will lead to a few hours of Good vent rates today and again on Wednesday. Rain chances return Thursday through next weekend, leading to another round of wetting precipitation over the forested areas. A few storms could be capable of heavy rain and flooding, especially within mountain canyons and creeks. ERCs are very low at the moment, so no fire danger expected into early November.