Matthews, NC Weather

What Has Changed

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

Key Messages

1. Low-end fire danger conditions are expected again tomorrow. 2. Dry high pressure persists through early next week. Temperatures will fall below normal beginning Friday, then steadily return to normal through next week.

Discussion

Key message 1: Low-end fire danger conditions are expected again tomorrow.

Sunny conditions are still expected the next few days, with highs in the lower 70s and lows in the 40s east of the NC mountains. Forecast soundings for tomorrow continue to depict deep afternoon mixing and increasingly feature little to no inversion atop the mixed layer. As a result, still think there's potential for dewpoints to crash Thursday afternoon, resulting in RHs falling to critical values across much of the area. It is fortunate that low-level winds are expected to slacken enough that little to no overlap between critical RHs and dangerously gusty winds will take place.

Key message 2: Dry high pressure persists through early next week. Temperatures will fall below normal beginning Friday, then steadily return to normal through next week.

A broad surface high will remain in place through the remainder of the week, maintaining quiet conditions across the area. A pattern change is in store for Friday, as reinforcing high pressure settles over New England, instigating a brief period of synoptically-driven cold air damming going into the weekend. As a result, temperatures should settle a category or two below normal over the weekend...with lows in the low 40s...cold enough for some frost potential. Sans any good upper forcing, it still appears unlikely that any rain or significant cloud cover will develop with CAD...and the air mass will simply modify going into next week, allowing temperatures to creep back up toward normal.

Meanwhile, the upper pattern will finally show some signs of life beginning Sunday or Monday, as an upper low initially centered over the Four Corners region of the Southwest begins lifting northeastward, and ridging over the central and eastern CONUS starts to break down in response. By the end of the seven-day forecast period, a more progressive and dynamic upper pattern will be setting in, but incipient dry air is still expected to severely limit rain changes through the middle of next week.

Aviation

At KCLT and elsewhere: A seasonably dry air mass is forecast to result in continued VFR conditions at the TAF sites through this forecast period. Having said that, moisture is beginning to gradually increase, so there may be more in the way of early morning fog/low stratus along lakes and in mountain valleys Thu morning. The probability is too low to include any restrictions in the TAFS...although a tempo for 6SM/FEW001 FEW003 is included at KHKY from 10-12Z. Otherwise, mostly light NW=>NE winds are expected through much of the period.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions persist through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Mountain valley fog and low stratus will be possible each morning.