Choteau, MT Weather

Key Messages

- Temperatures will return to unseasonably warm levels on Wednesday and continue until a period of cooler than average temperatures beginS Friday, which continueS through the beginning of the following week.

- Pacific system will bring rain and mountain snow beginning Thursday night and continuing through early Saturday morning.

- Gusty winds develop Friday afternoon and continue through Friday night with the highest gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front and Central MT.

Update

Satellite imagery this evening shows areas of mainly thin high cloud-cover streaming across MT in west to southwest flow aloft around the circulation of an upper level ridge centered southeast of the area. Overall dry conditions and light winds prevail through the remainder of tonight as surface high pressure slides east across the Canadian Prairies. Hoenisch

Discussion

/Issued 507 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Upper-level ridging will allow for mild conditions to continue through Thursday. Temperatures will be warmer than average and winds will be lighter with gusts generally remaining under 25 mph.

A weather system out of the Pacific that has been lingering over the west coast will begin to track eastward on Thursday, bringing cooler temperatures and moisture to the area. A cold front associated with this system will move through the region on Friday, resulting in the high temperatures on Friday to occur during the morning hours. Additionally, post frontal winds will develop Friday afternoon and continue through Friday night. The highest gusts are expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and Central MountainS. For southwest Montana, there is also a chance for thunderstorms due to passing of the cold front during the day on Friday. Due to snow levels not falling until the precipitation associated with this system has decreased, the bulk of snowfall is likely to be limited to the mountains. Any snowfall that does mix-in for the lowland areas will be hindered in accumulating due to recent rainfall and warm temperatures.

Looking beyond Saturday, although confidence is lower due to the how far into the future this is, upper-level troughing looks like it will remain in place over the region. Overall, temperatures will continue to be cooler with overnight freezes each night. Winds will be mild across the region with gusts generally under 25 mph. An upper-level trough has the potential to clip north Montana on Sunday and cause some light showers. With snow levels still at lower levels and daytime high temps in the upper 30s/low 40s, light showers may be snow or a snow/rain mix in the lowlands. -ESH

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Aviation

21/00Z TAF Period

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period under a south to southwest flow aloft with just some passing high clouds and/or some daytime cumulus over terrain near the ID border. Surface winds remain light through Wednesday morning with a slight increase in south to southeast surface winds Wednesday afternoon. Hoenisch