Vancleave, MS Weather

Key Messages

Updated at 157 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions remain in place through the weekend. The rapid spread of wild fires is not substantial through today given the weak wind, however the current and worsening drought conditions and abundant fuels do not alleviate the fire weather concerns. Heading into the weekend winds are expected to increase and Fire Weather headlines may be needed. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued (SPSLIX) to cover this.

Short Term

(Now through Monday) Issued at 157 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

There are no major changes in the latest forecast reasoning. Still looks like we could be waiting till next month for any appreciable rain and the short term portion of the forecast remains focused on temps and fire weather risks.

Mid lvl pattern hasn't changed, the ridge is still west of the area centered over the TX/Mexico border with the ridge axis stretching north just west of the MS River all the way into Canada. The ridge is rather large and amplified pretty much dominating much of the CONUS between the two continental divides. This ridge will continue to slowly slide east moving directly overhead Saturday and remaining centered over the Lower MS Valley through Sunday while a deep L/W trough digs along and just east of the Atlantic coast and all the way down into the western Caribbean. This along would basically squash any chance of rain through the weekend but with PWs generally remaining around 0.5" the chance of rain is just not going to happen.

At the sfc broad high pressure dominates the eastern CONUS and this sfc high will strengthen while it slides south becoming centered over the northeastern CONUS and then the DELMARVA region over the weekend. This will help push a weak backdoor cold front into the region tomorrow. This will cause LL temps to fall a degree or two but it will also send us recycled dry air and with the efficient mixing we have seen and likely see again dewpoints will likely drop into the upper 30s Saturday afternoon. Winds will will still remain on the lighter side over the inland areas where the lowest RH values will be.

Biggest deviation from the NBM is dropping dewpoints by using a blend of the NBM/NBM10/NBM25 today and then the NBM05/NBM10/NBM25 for Saturday. Highs actually don't look that bad some very minor tweaks made to that. The other change from the NBM are the morning lows Saturday and especially Sunday where we used a mix of the NBM/NBM25 and MOS.

All details concerning fire weather are in the fire weather portion of the discussion. /CAB/

Long Term

(Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 157 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The long term period beginning Sunday night into Monday morning and continuing into the new workweek has us firmly under an upper level high with ridging that extends into the upper midwest. As the period progresses the ridging transits eastward and by midweek we are on the upstream limb of the upper level flow, but still seeing more impacts and control from the more tropical flow, as opposed to northerly continental flow. This upper level pattern will be matched by a surface high over the mid-Atlantic seaboard. So, while the upper level flow may bring some moisture into the area, overall we are still looking at dry air at the surface driven by northeasterly winds. PWs in the column will be in the range of 0.5-0.75 inches. These values are statistically in the lowest quartile and nearing the driest 10% of all data. There is no rain in the 7 day forecast period and maybe even beyond that. October is typically our driest month, but this is a little ridiculous.

All this leads to continued discussion of Fire Weather risk. Minimum RH's for the period will be in the 30%s, at best, for the northern half of the CWA and 50%s for the south. The only consolation we have with respect to elevated fire threat is that winds will be minimal, less than 10mph. That said, we know there are burn bans in many of our parishes and counties and we expect continued discussion regarding Fire Weather headlines.

Beyond the continued dry-ness, we are looking at clear to mostly sunny skies, daytime highs around 80, and overnight lows dipping into the 50s. /DSS/

Aviation

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 157 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist at all terminals through the forecast period. Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will continue to keep the region from seeing any significant moisture recovery and thus we will maintain mostly clear skies, with no significant ceiling or visibility restrictions anticipated. Surface winds will generally remain light through today. /CAB/