Essexville, MI Weather

Key Messages

- Cooler temperatures can be expected Tuesday.

- Mild weather will then prevail through the rest of the week.

- There is a chance for light rain Thursday and Thursday night.

Discussion

The surface cold front will exit south of the state by late afternoon. The shallow low level frontal circulation and lack of upper level forcing has maintained a dry fropa across Se Mi today. The cold front has been driven southward as a 1038mb sfc high expands across northern Ontario. This high will sustain low level anticyclonic flow across Se Mi through Tuesday as it drifts toward srn Quebec, resulting in continued dry weather across Se Mi. Post frontal cold air advection will drop 925mb temps down into the single digits tonight. A light gradient flow and occasional mid/high clouds will offer some limit to radiational cooling tonight, supporting lows from the upper 30s in the thumb to mid 40s in Detroit. Residual shallow cold air within east-southeasterly sfc winds will limit daytime mixing on Tuesday, supporting daytime highs of mid 50s in the thumb to low 60s across metro Detroit south.

Occasional mid/high clouds will persist into Wednesday as a broad mid level warm air advection regime envelops the region within emerging deep layer southwest flow. An embedded short wave impulse is forecast to lift into the Great Lakes region from the southwest Wednesday. Model cross sections indicate elevated and shallow moist isentropic ascent associated with this feature, not supportive of rain. Veering of the surface winds toward the south on Wednesday with the continued eastward departure of the surface high will drive 925mb temps into the teens. Probabilistic guidance is well clustered on highs into the low 70s Wednesday within the pattern, roughly 15 degree above seasonal norms.

A northern stream short wave will drive a sfc cold front into Lower Mi on Thursday. There are indications that the deep layer frontal structure will weaken/become frontolytic as it tracks across Se Mi Thurs/Thurs night. Nonetheless, a narrow axis of deep layer moisture with some steeper mid level lapse rates will warrant a chance of showers. Probabilistic guidance suggests the better chances will be across the Tri Cities and thumb. Strong indications within the data indicate that if it were to rain, QPF amounts will be a few hundredths of an inch at best. Strengthening southwest flow in advance of the front will set the stage for a mild day Thursday as model soundings and prob guidance support highs in the low to mid 70s. Any semblance of post frontal cold air advection looks brief as the northern stream jet retreats to the north allowing mild air to remain entrenched across the Great Lakes region through the weekend.

Marine

A dry cold frontal passage will clear into the eastern Great Lakes this morning resulting northerly post-frontal flow. The surface pressure gradient should sufficiently constrict for an uptick in winds and waves heading into the evening hours. A brief period of occasional wave heights above 5 feet may develop for Outer Bay and portions of the southern Lake Huron shoreline, where fetch is maximized. A short-fused Small Craft Advisory may still be needed this evening. High pressure then translates southeastward across Ontario on Tuesday, before settling over New England by Wednesday. In response, local winds will veer easterly. Several additional waves of low pressure are expected to track northeastward from The Plains through the Upper Midwest during the the mid-late week time- frame, but winds and waves largely hold below headline criteria.

Prev Discussion

Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

AVIATION...

Forcing along an elevated frontal boundary will likely aid in the production of some localized low-lying VFR clouds from KFNT down into the Metro terminals through the evening hours. The signal to achieve MVFR cig heights has been relatively weak, but cannot rule out some sparse development heading into the evening hours. The forcing responsible for any localized shallow cloud bases will stall near KYIP to KDTW overnight as low-level winds veer to the southeast. Veering winds could help bring in residual moisture from Lake Erie, bringing a low confidence setup for mvfr overnight and through daybreak. Given the subtle forcing and weak moisture advection off the lake, will preclude any mentioned of mvfr cigs at this time.

D21/DTW Convection... Thunderstorms are not forecast through the TAF period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for cigs at or below 5000 ft today.