Welsh, LA Weather

Key Messages

- No rain anticipated through the rest of the week with cool mornings and warm afternoons each day.

- Fire danger will remain elevated through this week with ongoing drought conditions and minimum RH values ranging as low as 25 - 35 percent during the afternoons.

- Northeast to East winds will remain elevated in the coastal waters.

Discussion

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

A large high pressure cell presently centers over the Great Lakes region with modest ridging extending southward into the central Gulf waters. Concurrently the upper level pattern is developing a fairly sizable amplification into the Midwest. Temperatures will continue to rebound toward the low / mid 80s this afternoon with lows ranging from the low 50s to near 60F. Temperatures increase a little further Wednesday and Thursday with some locations potentially touching the upper 80s, however lows will trend about normal for this time of year. As the subtropical ridge builds throughout the week ahead, it will form an Omega Block into Friday. An Omega Block is a meteorological short term to describe when a ridge of high pressure is wedged in between two well pronounced or amplified shortwave troughs. Often this results in anomalously high rainfall or very dry weather depending on the location. For the Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana communities, it is unfortunate to say that we will lean in the dry portion of the pattern with the ridge amplifying west of the Mississippi Valley into Saturday.

During the weekend, the upper air pattern shows some smoothing of the ridge as it wanes to the SECONUS. The forecast area does not fully regain an onshore regime indicating humidity will remain low through the next seven days. Minimum afternoon RH is expected to range 25-40%. There is no meaningful rainfall in the full forecast while we remain under a significant amount of subsidence and dry air. Thus, the main weather concerns this week will be the worsening drought conditions and fire weather concerns. Although North to East winds will be generally light, dry fuels will be sensitive to ignition. Burn bans should be respected and even where permitted unnecessary burning is discouraged. The public is also encouraged to take extra steps to minimize sources of ignition such as properly discarding cigarette butts, keep chains from dragging, and monitor outdoor cooking apparatuses and machinery closely.

Kowalski / 30

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions to persist through the rest of the forecast period with winds mainly out of the NE to E.

Marine

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Small Craft Advisory is in place until 1PM this afternoon for portions of the 20-60NM offshore waters. A moderate pressure gradient will remain across the coastal waters into mid week. Winds will be 15 to 25 knots over the gulf waters through mid day tomorrow and gradually decrease thereafter.