Farmington, IL Weather

Key Messages

- Continued above-normal warmth and dry conditions are expected through Friday, with afternoon temperatures in the 70s to near 80 degrees solidifying one of the warmest Octobers on record.

- Scattered, light showers have a low chance (10-30%) Thursday, primarily near and north of Interstate 72, offering no significant relief to ongoing dry conditions.

- A pattern shift is favored by next weekend and early November, bringing higher confidence in cooler, breezier, and wetter weather.

Discussion

Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

The weather has been particularly boring as of late. This dry and warm pattern will continue for the first half of this week before the ridging starts to see ripples in the flow. The first ripple will bring a weak front to dip down near central IL on Thursday, then retreat back north Friday, possibly bringing some light rain north of I-72. However, it could pass without any activity due to how dry our airmass is. As of now, there is a 10-30% chance of showers for Thursday into Friday.

A second, stronger disturbance will follow closely behind this weekend, bringing a 30-50% chance for showers Saturday into Sunday. Amounts are forecast to be minimal, but there is time for this forecast to change. The global models do not exactly agree on timing or strength of the weekend/next week system. The GFS has a less defined disturbance pass through over the weekend. The Euro model has a much stronger, defined low pressure system and cold front forecast for next Monday. Timing/location/amounts will continue to shift as we move closer. Trends will continue to be monitored with future forecasts. Overall, it looks like we may be seeing a more active pattern develop late this week.

Temperatures will continue to be above normal. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s, nearing 80 in some places later in the week. Lows will be in the 50s. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler starting this weekend into next week. "Cooler" in this sense means temperatures will be in the low 70s for highs. Normals for this time of year is around 61-65 degrees across central and southeastern IL. The CPC's 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and Week 3-4 outlooks all show above normal temperatures. Dry weather will last through much of the extended period as well.

Aviation

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Aside from a consistent feed of high clouds working across the area, VFR conditions are expected through the end of this TAF cycle. This will be paired with be light and variable winds.

Ilx Watches

None.