El Dorado, AR Weather

Key Messages

Issued at 1124 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Above average temperatures and prolonged dry conditions will maintain an elevated wildfire risk throughout the 7-day forecast period.

- The lack of appreciable rainfall and growing rainfall deficit will result in further drought degradation through the end of this month.

- Longer range guidance just beyond the next 7 days suggests the potential for a more active pattern closer to Halloween into early November.

Discussion

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Upper-level ridge to build overhead through Saturday bringing seasonably warm high temperatures to the region through the weekend with afternoon high temperatures forecast to average in the low to mid 80s. Slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s expected on Monday and Tuesday as an upper-level trough translates east across the region. Southwest flow aloft ahead of the trough to bring increased cloud-cover to the region. However, with insufficient moisture return ahead of the trough, dry conditions to persist.

An upper-ridge to rebuild across the ArkLaTex on Wednesday, bringing a return of seasonably warm temperatures with highs forecast to climb into the low to mid 80s through Thursday.

Overnight lows each night will be driven by the prevailing continental airmass the will remain firmly established across the region through the period. Mainly east winds will maintain dry air across the region, allowing overnight lows to average in the lower 50s. However, toward the end of the forecast period, southerly flow to return first across east Texas, driving overnight lows upwards into the upper 50s across this area by Thursday morning.

The combination of ongoing drought conditions and a dry airmass prevailing through much of the period will maintain an environment favorable for wildfires. Fortunately, light winds throughout the forecast period should prevent wildfire activity from becoming unmanageable. /05/

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Still only very high and thin cirrus is all we will have to deal with today across our airspace. Some hint of some low level returns along with fog developing inland of the SW LA coast should remain south of the LFK terminal this morning. Model time height cross sections hinting at the possibility of a very weak cu field late this afternoon across mainly our NE TX terminals but chose to leave this out of the 12z package as no ceilings are expected if we see this cloud cover at all. Winds will gradually become southeast later this morning with speeds generally under 10kts.

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Spotter Information Statement

Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Spotter activation may be needed through this weekend in the event of wildfire development.

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