Florence, AL Weather

Key Messages

Updated at 900 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- No significant weather-related impacts are expected for the next seven days.

Near Term

(Today) Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Adjusted afternoon dew points down slightly based on current Hi- Res guidance (mainly in the 40s). This will lead to minimum relative humidity values to be in the 30-40% range for most locations this afternoon. Although, some spots in NW AL may see values dip into the upper 20 to lower 30 percent range. Ultimately, our overall thinking for the forecast today hasn't changed. Enjoy the pleasant weather!

Previous Discussion:

North-northeast flow aloft of 20-30 knots will exist across the TN Valley for the duration of the forecast period, as our region will remain within the gradient between an amplifying 500-mb ridge (extending from northern Mexico into the southern Canadian Prairie provinces) and a developing positive-tilt trough along the southeastern Atlantic Coast. In the low-levels, we will remain under the influence of a strengthening surface high across southwestern QC, which will provide a sufficient pressure gradient to induce NNE winds (up to 5 knots) for much of the night. With this in mind, overnight lows appear as if they will be similar to values observed last night (l-m 40s, but slightly warmer near large bodies of water). Patchy ground fog may also develop once again during the predawn hours (in locations where winds temporarily relax).

After sunrise, low-level flow will begin to veer to the east in response to surface pressure rises across much of the Mid-Atlantic region. Although a narrow tongue of slightly higher dewpoints may advect northward in the vicinity of the wind shift axis, this should have little impact on MinRH values and the potential for wildfire initiation, as abundant sunshine will allow afternoon temps to once again warm into the m-u 70s.

Short Term

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 900 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Our forecast area will remain beneath a belt of 20-30 knot northerly flow aloft (along the eastern periphery of an amplified mid-level ridge to our west) for much of the short term period. However, gradual weakening of this flow is anticipated by Sunday/Sunday night as the ridge deamplifies in response to a deepening northern stream trough and begins to translate eastward across the Lower/Mid-MS Valley. As a result, profiles will remain very dry, with PWAT values hovering around 0.5" and no risk for precipitation. In the low-levels, flow will veer further to the SE on Saturday, before becoming light/variable on Sunday/Sunday night as a surface high weakens over the northern Mid-Atlantic states and the local pressure gradient expands. Due to minor cool air advection from the east, afternoon highs this weekend may fall a couple of degrees (into the l-m 70s), with overnight lows remaining cool and in the l-m 40s (but slightly warmer near large water sources).

Long Term

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 900 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

The beginning of the long term period will be categorized by upper ridging over the Southeast, keeping seasonably warm and dry conditions in place over the region. High temps will range from the low to mid 70s with what should be plenty of sunshine through the day. Like recent days, we will have to monitor dewpoint depressions in case RHs drop to a level that would be more critical for fire conditions, but light winds will mitigate larger fire concerns. The mid to lake week period gets a bit more uncertain as a series of upper waves are progged to traverse to our north around the Great Lakes region, pushing cold fronts through the northern Plains and Midwest. For now it does not look like these systems will amplify enough to dig this far south, but we will continue to monitor trends. For now, we will maintain a dry forecast with daily highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s to lower 50s.