Shepherd, TX 77371 Weather

Key Messages

- Warm and dry conditions expected through early next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over the next couple of days.

- Potential change to a wetter pattern by the end of the month.

Discussion

Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

The firmly planted ridge remains the main driving force of our current serene weather pattern. Tomorrow's temperatures, again, reach the low to mid 80s before dipping into the low 50s to low 60s for overnight lows inland. The "less sticky" feeling outside is anticipated to continue into the weekend. Surface moisture remains off shore and dewpoints hover in the upper 40s to low 60s. Situational awareness for sustained fire risk does continue through Friday as Relative Humidity values sit around 25-30% during the day. Light winds, however, will keep us out of Red Flag criteria.

Moving into the weekend, the ridge and continual dry air keeps little to no rain chances over Southeast Texas. As a result, daytime highs remain in the low to mid 80s inland and the upper 70s to low 80s along the coasts. Overnight lows remain seasonal, between the low 50s and low 60s inland while slightly warmer along the coast between the upper 60s and low 70s. A weak low-level jet max and a slightly tighter pressure gradient extend north from the Rio Grande Valley, that could bring slightly increased surface winds on Saturday and Sunday. But the minimal PWAT values do keep precip chances low, despite the increased upper-level dynamics.

Rain chances look to return early next week as an upper level trough moves through the Southern Plains and warm moist air from the Gulf pushes into the region. Look for isolated to scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms mainly for areas west of I-45.

CMW/Cotto

Aviation

(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

VFR conditions will persist throughout the TAF period. Winds will be light and VRB through Fri morning, becoming ESE-SE at 5-10 KTS in the afternoon.

Cotto

Marine

Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Light easterly winds and seas of 1 to 3 feet through Friday. Winds are expected to increase to 15-20 knots by late Saturday and continue into Monday. This will lead to seas rising to 4-6 feet by Sunday, possibly reaching 7 feet at times over the offshore waters. Caution Flags and/or Small Craft Advisories may be required. The moderate easterly flow will continue for much of the upcoming week, additional Caution Flags may be needed at times. Winds relax and seas subside Tuesday and Wednesday.

With respect to rain chances, expect tranquil weather conditions through the weekend. The return of showers and thunderstorms may occur early next week as an upper level trough moves across the Southern Plains and moisture from the Gulf returns to the local area.

Cotto