Papillion, NE 68046 Weather

Key Messages

- Warmer weather is expected through Friday with highs in the 70s with a few areas approaching 80.

- Winds gusting to around 30-40mph on Friday will be a concern for some limited fire impacts in areas with cured fuels. However, the strongest winds will not be co-located with the lowest RH values.

- Expect a cool down heading into Sunday, as highs struggle to reach the 50s and 60s in many areas.

Discussion

Issued at 1131 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

A weak shortwave trough continues to slide across the Great Plains tonight into Wednesday morning. A few showers have kicked off across northern Kansas and are slowly making their way up into southeastern Nebraska. They will be fighting some dry air, so not super confident in much measurable precipitation reaching the ground in many locations. A few sprinkles or a light shower may be possible (20% chance), mainly for those along and south of a line from David City to Wahoo to Council Bluffs.

Thursday, a mid-level ridge builds over the Central High Plains into the Dakotas, shifting over the Great Plains by Friday. Expect afternoon high temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 70s each day, with a few locations approaching 80. Friday will be a day to monitor for changes, which could result in some fire weather concerns. Minimum relative humidity values will be mainly in the mid- 30s to mid-40s. There will be some pockets of lower RH values (upper 20s to mid-30s) along the Kansas Nebraska border. Wind gusts in this area may approach 25mph. The areas of stronger winds are anticipated to stay near the Nebraska/South Dakota border where RH values will be higher. That being said we do have some areas with drier fuels. Should a fire spark, there may be some localized problems; however, widespread fire weather concerns are not currently expected.

Saturday, low pressure moves across Saskatchewan and Manitoba with an attendant cold front sweeping across Nebraska and the Dakotas. Expect a few showers and possibly a rumble of thunder across our northern Nebraska counties Friday evening as the front starts to move through. Better chances for showers are expected Saturday into Sunday. Additional shower activity is expected Monday as a mid-level trough drops into the region from the north.

Saturday high temperatures will be dependent on location as the front moves through. Areas in northern Nebraska may struggle to reach the 70s, while areas near the Kansas/Nebraska/Missouri border may approach 80 degrees. Cooler air settles in Sunday and Monday with highs in the 50s and 60s. Lows will be primarily in the 40s. Tuesday morning, portions of northern Nebraska may fall into the mid to upper 30s.

Aviation

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Through at least the first half of the period (through this evening), extremely high confidence in VFR conditions under clear/mostly clear skies (only limited high cirrus). Winds throughout the period will be a fairly minimal issue, with sustained speeds under 10KT and primarily out of the south- southwest.

During the latter half of the period (late tonight through Thursday morning), there are at least subtle signs of a few "question marks" regarding continued VFR, but these are still of low confidence. The primary concern is at KOFK, where some models/guidance continue to hint at shallow fog development particularly 09-15. Given continued lower confidence have opted to only "hint" at this potential with a "6SM BR" visibility group. Meanwhile, while fog appears less likely at KOMA/KLNK, there are hints of a potential lower-end VFR ceiling advecting in from the south-southwest early in the morning and potentially lasting through the remainder of the period. Given mixed signals on the likelihood of these lower clouds materializing, have opted introduce only "SCT040" at this time (even if a ceiling ultimately materializes it should be VFR).

Oax Watches

NE...None. IA...None.