Collegeville, MN 56321 Weather

Key Messages

- Quiet weather continues this afternoon with a top 10 weather day ongoing.

- Breezy southerly winds expected tomorrow with rain showers possible in western MN.

- More shower chances Saturday along a cold front, with the front stalling south of the area on Sunday. Dry except for western MN on Sunday, with further rain showers expected by Monday morning. The highest rain rates and best accumulations are expected in southwest/southern MN Monday morning.

Discussion

Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

A top 10 weather day is unfolding before us as you would probably struggle to describe a nicer late October day than what we have. Temperatures range from low 70s in western WI and central MN to as high as the upper 70s in southern MN as of 2:30pm, with a light breezy out of the south to southeast and mostly clear skies. The only cloud cover on satellite is over portions of western WI with some fair weather cumulus as the rest of the area is under total sunshine. Our days are getting shorter so get outside and enjoy the beautiful weather while it lasts!

Our last couple 70 degree days will be tomorrow and Saturday as we see breezy southerly winds pick up tomorrow ahead of an incoming cold front which will bring shower chances and much cooler temperatures after it passes. Winds increase to 15-20mph with gusts as high as 30-35mph in western MN by Friday afternoon out of the south with a few showers also moving across the area due to the increased omega from the WAA in the lower levels, as we do maintain enough moisture to produce showers. The breezy winds will partially elevate fire weather conditions, however the showers moving in and the relatively high moisture will keep RH high enough to prevent any sort of statement or Red Flag conditions. The rest of the area remains dry and enjoys the warmer weather until the front arrives, with winds starting to shift in western Minnesota by midday Saturday alongside the arrival of more showers along the front. The synoptic setup for the front is not ideal for widespread sustained rainfall, rather we look to have a line of scattered showers producing rain showers with some gaps expected. This is due to a pair of surface lows with one moving northwards into central Canada and the other down in the southern Plains, with the cold front stretching southwards from the northern low. As a result our forcing is rather weak even with some omega from WAA ahead of the front as we are too far removed from the actual low pressure centers. This line of showers looks to stretch from roughly Duluth to Sioux Falls by Noon Saturday, with showers weakening into the evening and largely dissipating overnight into Sunday. Winds will shift from southerly ahead of the front to northwesterly by Saturday afternoon as they also weaken below 10mph, with a continued northerly shift by Sunday. Weak high pressure tries to slide into the gap left by the front as it sags southwards on Sunday, however the southern plains low looks to move northeast and push the high off to the northwest as a final round of rainfall arrives on Monday morning. This final round looks to be the most robust of the group as the surface low weakens but moves closer to the area, with southwestern and southern MN favored for the highest rainfall amounts which look to range from 1/2 to 3/4 inch.

Behind the front we return to much more normal temperatures in the 50s for highs and upper 30s to 40s for lows, which is much closer to our normal near 50 degree high temperatures by Halloween. However, ensemble guidance is favoring a brief period of above normal temperatures again starting Wednesday as another synoptic scale system moves across central North America, with a warm frontal boundary bringing low level WAA once again. As of right now, this looks to be more mid to upper 50s highs with maybe a few 60s, instead of the 70s we have been seeing. So while it is a cooldown compared to now, it still ends up above normal overall. This warm stretch is also relatively short lived, with the cold front from the same system moving through by the end of next week and returning us to near normal to end the month. We still do not have any indication of near freezing temperatures, which means even if we do see precipitation chances, we expect to see only rain with little chance for any snow.

Aviation

Issued at 1113 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

The main change for this TAF period is south-southeasterly winds have been increased across western and central MN during Friday. Winds will be strongest during Friday afternoon across west-central MN (AXN) where sustained values will near 20 knots while gusts reach 30-35 knots. Winds will decrease heading east into WI. However, wind speeds and gusts as a whole will only slow slightly during Friday evening. Still expecting a band of -SHRA to move through western to central MN late morning into the afternoon. Have maintained PROB30s for STC and RWF. A small chance of -TSRA exists at AXN but confidence is not currently high enough to include in the TAF. Southerly LLWS of 40-50 knots is likely Friday evening over MN as a strong LLJ moves overhead.

KMSP...Slight chance of -SHRA at MSP late Friday afternoon but confidence is still too low to include in the TAF. South- southeasterly wind gusts of 20-25 knots expected Friday afternoon. Also, included southerly LLWS of 40 knots Friday night.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15G25kts becoming W. SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10kts. MON...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.

Mpx Watches

MN...None. WI...None.