Vassar, MI 48768 Weather

Key Messages

- The potential exists for dense fog development Sunday and Monday mornings. Any patchy/dense fog is expected to dissipate by late morning.

- High temperatures increase to around 70 on Sunday before a dry cold front drops us back into the upper 50s to low 60s Monday and Tuesday.

- Dry conditions through the middle of next week.

Discussion

SE MI continues to reside under the western edge of Northeastern high pressure. Upper ridging folding into lower MI supports a couple degree warmer day as highs reach the upper 60s. With light south/southeast winds overnight, fog potential is favored along the Lakes St Clair-Erie as lake moisture is drawn inland though patchy radiative fog also possible further north like the previous couple mornings.

Upper ridging is flattened overtop the state Sunday by a cold front sagging out of northern Ontario. Core of the accompanying airmass (850mb temps 10-11C) allows highs to make a run to 70. Said front eventually sinks across the CWA early Monday to little fanfare given the detachment from the parent wave over eastern Canada and frontal orientation parallel to mean flow. Fropa does bring a brief cool down closer to late October averages as 850mb temps fall to low single digits C with highs in the 50s-low 60s.

Arrival of a series of waves over the Pacific Northwest induces low amplitude ridging over the central CONUS mid to late week, only briefly interrupted by a southern stream low lifting through the Midwest. Locally this leads to another stretch of above normal temperatures and limited chances for rain to close out the month.

Marine

We will remain on the western periphery of high pressure anchored over the New England area through the rest of the weekend. This will favor a continuation of southerly flow across the area. Wind speeds will increase through the end of the weekend as the pressure gradient increases in advance of an approaching cold front. This cold front slows down out over The Straits Sunday, but then gradually proceeds to drop south across Lake Huron Sunday night into Monday. As the front moves through, south winds become northerly by Monday and then gradually veer and become easterly by Tuesday. Wind speeds along and behind the front are progged to remain below 25 knots. With the return of onshore flow, waves build to around 3 feet or so based on the current forecast. Falling short of small craft concerns, but something to keep an eye on. There could be a few showers along the cold front Sunday afternoon into Monday morning across Lake Huron, but overall the front will be on a weakening trend as it drops through the region.

The pattern becomes more progressive next week, with a series of low pressure systems tracking through the western Great Lakes region. While this will result in fluctuating wind directions mid to late week, ensembles do not any signals for any headline-worth winds through the end of next week.

Prev Discussion

Issued at 154 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

AVIATION...

Large surface anticyclone will remain parked over the Northeast United States through Sunday. With the position of the high pressure, light easterly flow trajectories will persist tonight before gradually shifting southwesterly by late Sunday. Light wind speeds bring the potential for fog again Sunday morning. Some high cloud potential does provide more uncertainty with regards to the coverage of fog late tonight. Forecast soundings and MOS guidance supports a fog signal at all of the sites and have included prevailing at the northern sites with TEMPO at the Detroit terminals. There is an argument that could be made with perhaps a greater potential for fog at the southern taf sites, but out of respect for persistence decided to go with LIFR at all sites.

D21/DTW Convection... Thunderstorms are not forecast through the TAF period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for cigs/vsby below 200 ft and/or 1/2SM Sunday morning.