Fed Decision in October?
80%No change
- No change80%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase19%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
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Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?
The odds
11%December 31
- October 314%
- November 308%
- December 3111%▼ 2
How the odds have moved
October 31: 4% on Oct 13, 4% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | $1.7K | |
| November 30 | 8% | 6¢ | 9¢ | $3.5K | |
| December 31 | 11% | ▼ 2 | 10¢ | 12¢ | $4.8K |
Related markets
All central banks & rates ›How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.2%median
0.88%4.63%
Median 4.2%Middle half 4.05% – 4.32%
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▲ 1
- No change22%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%▼ 1
- June 2027 Meeting36%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting33%
- March 2027 Meeting17%▲ 1
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting5%
- December 2026 Meeting3%
- October 2026 Meeting1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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