Fairlawn, VA Weather

What Has Changed

Did not go as pessimistic with respect to fog in the aviation forecasts. Still think there will be some along the immediate rivers, but coverage is expected to be less this morning compared to yesterday morning.

No significant changes to the overall forecast. Guidance maintains dry forecast through the week in spite of some periodic cloud cover.

Key Messages

1) Dry and seasonable weather continues through the week. The first day of November is the next opportunity for rain.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and seasonable weather continues through the week. The first day of November is the next opportunity for rain.

High pressure remains over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast states through the end of the month. This high amplitude anticyclone will flatten in response to short wave energy moving through the faster flow to our north. Mid and upper level moisture will increase Wednesday, remnants of the storm system which plagued the Southwest, but is weakening as it moves northeast. Its passage will bring a veil of cirrus but nothing more. We may actually end of with some marine strato-cu as the surface winds become easterly late tonight into Wednesday...the HREF the most bullish with respect to this cloud layer. Depending on cloud thickness, this may impact temperatures with lower high temps Wednesday and higher low temps Wednesday night.

Aside from the passage of the shortwave trough Wednesday the overall ridge of high pressure will remain in place for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Temperatures should remain seasonably mild through the end of the month as a result. Friday looks to be the warmest day with high temperatures 10 degrees above normal.

As for the next chance of rain. Models have been consistent with advertisement of a southern stream short wave to cross the country over the weekend, bringing moisture into the area beginning Sunday November 1st. Some rain may sneak in here late Halloween night, but all models still insist on dry conditions for the Trick-or-Treat crowd Saturday evening.

Strength of the initial wave Sunday appears weak, but models do indicate southeast upslope flow which should enhance the rain chance along the Blue Ridge. A series of disturbances are forecast to follow during the week, so it looks promising for additional rainfall, and this should help snuff the late October dry spell.

Aviation

Forecast remains dry. Aside for patchy fog this morning, expecting VFR conditions today.

Used tempo groups for LWB and BCB to account for fog off the rivers this morning. Maintained unrestricted vsby elsewhere.

Winds this morning were light and variable. After 14Z, expect a light northeast wind over the piedmont and an east wind across the mountains...generally under 6 kts but with a few gusts up to 15 kts between 14-19Z.

For tonight, high clouds will begin to increase after midnight. Will also be monitoring shallow easterly flow which may bring a shallow but thin layer of MVFR cigs to the area Wednesday morning. The HREF is the most bullish with respect to this low level cloud cover.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A period of low level clouds from the east may drop ceilings below 3000 ft...mainly MVFR, but there is a chance it could be as low as IFR Wednesday morning. Multiple cloud layers may persist through Wednesday night before clearing Thursday.