Wharton, TX Weather

Key Messages

- Warm and dry conditions expected through early next week.

- Potentially hazardous winds and seas over the Gulf late Saturday through Monday.

- Potential change to a wetter pattern by the end of the month or early November.

Discussion

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Expect mostly clear skies today, with inland highs in the mid-upper 80s and coastal highs in the upper 70s-low 80s as ridging persists over our CWA. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid 50s-mid 60s, with coastal locations seeing lows closer to 70. The overnight hours will also bring a gentle to moderate SE breeze for our nearshore and offshore waters, reintroducing some Gulf moisture near the surface that has been absent for the past few days. As a result, dewpoints will increase and creep closer to our overnight temperatures, creating a moist environment with a potential for patchy fog, particularly in areas along I-10 and west of I-45 (mostly outside the city).

Through the weekend, sfc high pressure will move onto the US East Coast from Canada, interacting with low pressure over the Bahamas to create a tighter pressure gradient over the Western Atlantic and Gulf. By Saturday afternoon/evening, sustained winds pick up out of the E/ESE at 15-20 kts over our nearshore and offshore waters. This wind, alongside a long easterly fetch over the Gulf, may make Small Craft Advisories necessary throughout the weekend and into next week. The extension of a sfc ridge axis southwest into our CWA will also bring some slightly cooler air, bringing daytime highs down into the upper 70s-mid 80s Sunday-Wednesday.

Focusing on Tuesday onward, we do see PoPs return primarily over Matagorda Bay as an upper-level trough brings in some lobes of vorticity and moisture from the EPAC/Gulf. However, models don't seem particularly excited about rain chances since dry air from the aforementioned high to our NE keeps the low-levels pretty hostile to convective development. Closer to Halloween, we do see long- range guidance suggest a cold front, but the timing and intensity of that cold front is still uncertain this far out. There also continues to be signals for a potential wetter pattern going into early November.

JMG / Self

Aviation

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions likely prevail through the TAF period. Light winds become SE this afternoon. The low level atmosphere is expected to become more humid overnight into the early morning hours on Saturday. This may result in patchy fog (mostly in rural areas), though the guidance is not indicating a strong signal for fog at this time.

Marine

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The primary marine concern will be the increasing fetch across the Gulf this weekend into early next week. High pressure over the northeastern United States coupled with a trough near Florida will steepen the low-level pressure gradient, resulting in a gradual increase in easterly winds and seas across much of the Gulf. There is some uncertainty regarding how E vs ESE vs ENE the overall fetch will be. A ENE fetch would tend to push the highest seas to the south of our region, while an E, and especially ESE, fetch could easily bring 6-8 foot seas to our offshore waters. At a minimum, there is an increasing risk for Small Craft Advisory level conditions in the Gulf waters starting as early as Saturday evening and lasting as late as Monday night. The highest seas are anticipated Monday afternoon. Beyond then, winds and seas are expected to decrease.

Self