Oak Trail Shores, TX Weather

Key Messages

- Quiet weather and mostly dry conditions will continue through early this week.

- A change in the weather pattern is expected by late week, bringing slightly cooler temperatures and periods of rain by next weekend.

Short Term

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Dry and unseasonably warm late October weather will persist across North Central Texas through Monday. A stout upper level ridge has finally retreated east of our region into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as a vigorous upper low begins to pivot northeastward out of the Four Corners states, toward the Upper Plains. Borne on strengthening upper level southwesterly winds, an expansive cirrus shield will stream out of Mexico across Texas through tonight. This thick upper cloud deck will help shave a few degrees off of this afternoon's highs, with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s expected. Lows tonight, conversely, will remain a tad above those we've seen areawide over the past few days. We'll enjoy just a bit more sun on Monday, interspersed with additional patchy high cloudiness. With few significant changes in the overall pattern, highs on Monday will remain very close to those expected this afternoon - upper 70s in the southwest counties, with lower 80s elsewhere.

Long Term

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A baggy upper level longwave pattern will continue to dominate the western United States through next weekend, leaving North and Central Texas within a southwesterly flow regime, and open to multiple rainfall opportunities. The latest Euro and GFS deterministic solutions depict a subtle wave rippling northeastward across our area Tuesday. Forcing for ascent and deep layer moisture are not overly impressive with this initial system, and NBM pops appropriately remain in the 10-30% range for our far western and southern counties Tuesday afternoon/night.

Most areas of North and Central Texas will actually remain dry Tuesday and Wednesday, as weak ridging temporarily holds sway over the area. However, a strengthening low level southerly fetch of moisture, combined with modest low level isentropic lift will create the potential for a few showers generally south of a Killeen to Canton line Wednesday afternoon. Amounts will be light and spotty with this activity, but a few lucky spots may get wet. Most locations will continue to see unseasonably mild high temperatures in the lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday.

The primary period of unsettled weather in this current forecast will begin Thursday, as another wave, embedded in the broader southwesterly flow, begins to approach the region. Low and mid level isentropic lift will intensify across the area Thursday into Friday, and precipitable water values, per the Euro ensemble solutions, will climb into the 150-225% range by Saturday. While the exact timing of precipitation rounds is nebulous at this range, we'll likely see scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring at intervals, first in the far west and southwest Thursday afternoon, and expanding eastward to encompass all of North and Central Texas Friday and Saturday. At this stage, PoPs for any given 12 hour period are generally on the order of 40-60% through Saturday, though the overall likelihood of everyone seeing at least some rain is high. Rainfall amounts will likely average a half inch to one and a half inches by Saturday night.

Extended range solutions suggest that the bulk of the precipitation should shift east of Texas on Sunday, with a shortwave ridge building over the Southern Plains ahead of the next major trough in the Western United States. This system should contribute to additional unsettled weather and precipitation at multiple points through the week of November 3rd through the 9th. Our strong El Nino pattern is starting to deliver the generous fall rainfall we've been messaging for the past few months.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR will persist at all terminals through 06Z Tuesday. Southeasterly surface flow of speeds 5-10kts will weaken to less than 5 kts tonight, resuming speeds of 5-10kts after 15Z Monday.

A broad cirrus shield continues to progress across the region within SSW upper-level flow. Weak synoptic ascent ahead of an upper-level perturbation moving northeast out of Mexico will result in a continuation of at least FEW-SCT high clouds around FL250 through the period.