Nederland, TX Weather

Key Messages

- No precipitation is expected through late next week.

- Temperatures will fall into the 50s each night and warm into the low to mid 80s each afternoon.

- Wildfire risk will remain elevated through early next week in response to ongoing drought conditions and afternoon relative humidity dropping to 20-35% each day.

Discussion

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Another night of calm winds, clear skies, and cool temps is ongoing as we begin the weekend, with high pressure at both the surface and aloft continuing to dominate the weather pattern. Upper air/water vapor analysis shows an elongated ridge positioned across much of the central CONUS from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast providing a northerly flow about 500mb. At the surface, high pressure is centered near New England and expands south across the SE CONUS, proving a more easterly flow in the lower levels. While we are still very dry overall, moisture has started to tick up slightly with a the 00Z LCH sounding showing a PWAT of 0.94" this evening (up from 0.77" 24 hours ago), which is still below average but closer to the ~40th percentile. While this won't really be noticeable overall, it will allow for some slightly warmer low temps this morning across lower SE TX and SW LA, where temps are only expected to fall into the lower 60s. Elsewhere, more of the same low to mid 50s are expected.

Today, upper level ridging continues to gradually shift eastward eventually becoming situated along the MS River Valley where it will linger into early next week. At the same time, the surface/lower level synoptic pattern will remain largely unchanged as the center of the surface high meanders south across New England and continues to dominated the eastern CONUs. This will only serve to reinforce the ongoing dry pattern, and with upper ridging overhead any touch of moisture return tonight will be quickly squashed, with forecast soundings showing PWATs dropping back into the 0.5-0.8" range by Sunday which is near to below the 25th percentile. This will result in overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s area-wide Sat-Mon night and afternoon highs in the in the lower 80s Sun-Tues.

The pattern begins to change somewhat by Tuesday into the midweek, but we will still have to wait a while longer for any precipitation. After a seasonal start to the day, moisture begins to return as upper level ridging weakens and begins to broaden out, allowing the flow aloft to become more W to SW. Dewpoints start to creep up by the afternoon and evening hours, especially closer to the coast, keeping overnight lows in the low to mid 60s along/south of I-10 for Wed morning. Through the later half of the week, slow moisture return continues but rain chances don't make their way back into the forecast until around the start of the weekend. Instead, a slight uptick in dewpoints and daytime highs/overnight lows can be expected each day Wed-Fri.

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

East to southeast winds around 5-10 kt continue through this afternoon. Winds become light and variable overnight before increasing back to 5-10 kt out of the east after sunrise. VFR conditions should generally prevail for all terminals through the period. There is a chance that some light fog may briefly reduce visibility overnight at LCH or BPT, but confidence is too low to explicitly mention in TAFs at this time.

64/Silas

Marine

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Winds will shift to a more east to east-southeasterly fetch today and begin to increase as surface high pressure builds down into the southeastern US and the pressure gradient overhead tightens. Winds remain breezy around 15-20 kts with higher gusts into early next week as surface high pressure lingers. This elongated period of elevated winds will allow seas to climb to 2-4 feet across the nearshore waters and from 4-8 feet from 20 to 60 miles offshore. A Small Craft Advisory continues for the outer zones from Cameron eastward, through midday Sunday for now but will likely need to be expended further over the coming forecast cycles. Elsewhere, boaters should continue to exercise caution. Winds and seas will relax beginning Tuesday.