Monahans, TX Weather

Key Messages

Updated at 620 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Rain chances increase from west to east late Friday through the weekend, with highest rain chances over our western areas Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding over SE NM, especially on Saturday.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue through most of today. Southeasterly winds become breezy each afternoon this weekend.

- Temperatures trend cooler this weekend into early next week.

Short Term

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 130 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Current water vapor imagery depicts a ridge currently sitting over west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Upper-level troughing is also evident across western portions of the CONUS. This upper-level trough will continue to advance towards our area through the Short Term period and into the Long Term, pushing the ridge farther east. As this happens, rain chances will increase (especially across southeast New Mexico) and temperatures will decrease. For today through Saturday morning, the best forcing, and therefore the best rain chances, remain just west of our coverage area. That being said, this evening and overnight scattered showers and storms are expected to make their way into southeast New Mexico and far west Texas, gradually decaying as they do so (20-40% chances). Better chances (in the neighborhood of 30-60%, up to 70%) develop across these same areas Saturday afternoon and evening. A couple of these storms may become severe, posing mainly a large hail and damaging wind risk. Heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding would also be a concern. More details on our rain chances from Saturday night onward can be found in the Long Term discussion below.

Highs today top out in the upper 70s and low 80s across most of the area (which is about 3-5 degrees above normal for this time of year). By Saturday, increasing cloud cover and decreasing heights keep temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than today. Most locations will see highs in the mid-to-upper 70s and low 80s. Cloud cover will generally keep overnight lows in the upper 50s and low 60s. Winds both today and Saturday will be breezy thanks to surface troughing ahead of the approaching upper-level system.

Sprang

Long Term

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

An upper-level trough continues to gradually shift northeast by Saturday evening and into Sunday. As it does so, disturbances embedded within southwest flow aloft and increased moisture yield increasing rain chances. The best chances (50-80%) will begin across our far western zones Saturday night and become areawide by Sunday morning. At this time, the best chances on Sunday look to be across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall is possible for some areas and may result in localized flash flooding during this timeframe (especially across portions of southeast New Mexico where the best lift is expected to be).

On Monday and Tuesday, the aforementioned upper trough lifts into the central and northern Great Plains, sending a cold front southward. Additional disturbances within the flow aloft keep rain chances in the forecast across much of the area, with the highest chances across the higher terrain thanks to southeasterly upslope flow/orographic forcing. Chances of rain decrease from west to east Monday night into Tuesday as troughing weakens. Subtle ridging returns by midweek, allowing for tempertures to warm up slightly. However, ridging may stay weak enough to keep low (10-20%) rain chances around.

Greening

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions are currently observed at all sites, but MVFR to IFR CIGs are developing across southeastern portions of the Permian Basin and in the Lower Trans-Pecos. Guidance have backed off the extent of these low CIGs, but they are still expected to spread to MAF and INK shortly (and look to remain east of other sites). VFR conditions return to all sites by 17Z. Southeasterly winds become breezy this morning, and gusts between 20-25 kts (occasionally up to 30 kts) will become commonplace at most sites through this afternoon and evening. Winds gradually diminish later tonight (although gusts are expected to continue at FST through the period).