Merkel, TX Weather

Key Messages

- A gradual warming trend will continue through Friday, with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal during the weekend.

- Increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms early next week and again late next week into next weekend.

Short Term

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Quiet weather continues for our area in the short term with an upper level ridge our dominant feature. This ridge is centered over Texas today, and will shift into East Texas on Friday. Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight with light southeast to south winds. Overnight lows will range from the lower to mid 50s in our southeastern counties, to the upper 50s to around 60 in the Big Country. Temperatures will be warm again on Friday with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and afternoon highs 80-85 degrees. South to southeast winds will increase and become somewhat breezy. By afternoon expect wind speeds of 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph.

Long Term

(Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

An upper-level trough across the Western US and associated upper- level low over Southern CA will begin to traverse eastward through the weekend. A series of weak upper-level disturbances will eject ahead of the trough and pass through West Central Texas Saturday and Sunday, mainly bringing some cloudier skies and very low chances of a isolated shower or two to our western most counties. Also, a tightening surface pressure gradient and nocturnal low- level jet development will support somewhat gusty south to southeast winds over the weekend.

A slightly more potent upper-level disturbances is expected to track through the area late Monday morning, and will bring increased shower and thunderstorm chances to West Central Texas through Tuesday morning. Shower and thunderstorms chances at this time remain in the low to medium range (20-40 percent), with the highest chances across the Big Country Monday night into Tuesday morning. Models continue to show a cold front tracking through the area on Tuesday, keeping some lower (20-30 percent) showers and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through Tuesday. By Thursday morning, models have started to hint at another round of precipitation across the area persisting into the start of next weekend. However, confidence remains lower at this time due to ongoing model uncertainty.

Temperatures will remain overall pleasant and slightly above normal, with morning lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s and afternoon highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s through Sunday. Then, with increasing cloud cover and precipitation chances limiting daytime high temperatures, temperatures will mostly remain in the 70s through next Friday.

Aviation

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. South- southeast winds will to increase to 10-15kt in the late morning with some gusts over 20kt in the afternoon.