Melissa, TX Weather

Key Messages

- Quiet weather will continue through the end of the week.

- A pattern shift looks to occur early to mid next week, which may result in cooler conditions and low rain chances.

Short Term

(Today and tonight) Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

The short term is very rinse-wash-repeat, as the upper level ridge remains planted over the Southern Plains heading into the weekend. East to southeast light winds will prevail the next couple days, keeping our temperatures quite moderate with overnight lows in the 50s and highs in the 80s. A closed low spinning off the coast of California will eventually move onshore, with broad-scale troughing becoming established over the western CONUS to kick off the weekend. This will set the stage for our early next week pattern shift as the movement of the trough will displace the aforementioned ridge further east into the Gulf states. Overall, largely a tranquil and simple way to ease into the last week and a half of October.

Long Term

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

While the northern stream of the broad trough will be more progressive and eject to the northeast, a lagging upper low will meander towards the Four Corners through the weekend. Ample moisture advection will begin across West Texas in response to the approaching disturbance, leading to increasing rain chances. Unfortunately for North and Central Texas, this activity is expected to remain displaced to our west, leaving the weekend forecast dry. We may observe some increased cloud cover and slightly lower temperatures out west in the Big Country thanks to the eastern periphery of the moisture plume, but this is largely a nothing- burger at this time.

The upper low will eventually become influenced by additional upstream disturbances, and eject northeastward into the Central Plains early next week. This will effectively flatten the ridge and shunt it even further south into the Gulf. As the disturbance moves across the Plains towards the Midwest/Great Lakes, overspreading mid- and upper-level moisture atop North and Central Texas. This increase in cloud cover would aid in keeping conditions a few degrees cooler as we head into the new work week. The movement of the disturbance would also welcome the returning potential for low rain chances to portions of the region. Latest guidance keeps better moisture generally near the Big Country and out towards West Texas, which would confine any accompanying showers and storms to those areas.

On top of the slightly cooler conditions, there remains potential for a cold front to push towards North and Central Texas early- mid week. While slightly under 50% of this morning's 12Z ensemble members had a deeper disturbance and FROPA pushing completely through on Tuesday, the rest were a bit lagging and weaker/non- existent in signal. This is where the forecast becomes much more uncertain as latest guidance is looking a bit more bearish with the frontal passage. The latest 00Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF essentially nix any FROPA. We'll need to keep an eye on the 00Z ensembles as they come in overnight to see if there is any more backing off. All this being said, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and intensity of FROPA as well as the magnitude and location of any rain chances this far out in the forecast period. Continue to keep updated with the forecast and more specific details will become clearer as we get closer in time.

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Similar to yesterday, light to calm winds are prevailing across the airports this morning. Expect light/variable or calm winds to persist for the next several hours before settling out of the ESE closer to 15-16Z. VFR will prevail at all sites with only FEW-SCT upper level clouds streaming overhead. Winds will remain light with speeds AOB 5-6 KT through tomorrow morning, but will gradually begin to veer more out of the SE after 06Z tonight. The signal for this shift is more apparent at ACT, and have added a second line to account for the more prevalent wind shift.