Jacksonville, TX Weather

Key Messages

Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Above average temperatures and prolonged dry conditions will maintain an elevated wildfire risk throughout much of the 7-day forecast period.

- The lack of appreciable rainfall and growing rainfall deficit will result in further drought degradation through the end of this month.

- Longer range guidance just beyond the next 7 days suggests the potential for a more active pattern closer to Halloween into early November.

Discussion

Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

An anomalously strong ridge aloft for early fall will continue to keep much of the central and eastern CONUS above average as far as high temperatures are concerned through early next week. As the center of the ridge axis effectively shifts overhead on Saturday, expect our warmest temperatures of the next 7 days with afternoon highs topping out in the mid 80s once again. With time, the ridge axis will gradually shift farther east through early next week. In turn, high temperatures will ease ever so slightly back closer to seasonal averages in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Meanwhile, drier air in place will continue to maintain lower humidity and pleasant mornings/evenings with overnight lows dropping back into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Unfortunately, the dry air also means a continued fire danger under worsening drought-stricken conditions as min RH values hold in the 20-35 percent range each afternoon this weekend and likely continuing into early next week. Therefore, will extend the existing Fire Danger Statement through Tuesday afternoon.

Despite the dry conditions prevailing into early next week, medium range guidance continues to favor a pattern shift by next weekend. As this expected pattern shift remains roughly a week out, changes in the timing and evolution of a major longwave pattern shift are to be expected. For now, Gulf moisture returning across our region still appears likely by the end of next week into next weekend. In addition, the ridge axis is expected to largely flatten out if not erode entirely as deepening SW flow aloft begins to set up across our region. This SW flow pattern typically favors more active and unsettled weather during this time of year so we will continue to hone in on more specific forecast details as we draw closer to the end of October into early November.

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Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

For the 23/18Z TAFs, VFR conditions will continue to prevail throughout the forecast period, with only a few high clouds and otherwise mostly clear skies. East-southeast winds will continue at 5 to 10 kts, becoming light overnight, trending southerly and resuming speeds of 4 to 7 kts during the day tomorrow.

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Spotter Information Statement

Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Spotter activation may be needed through this weekend in the event of wildfire development.

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